How Bad Might Covid-19 Get and What Might It Do to Our Economy?

The World Health Organization has said that the Covid-19 death rate is 3.4% globally.

“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a press briefing at the agency’s headquarters in Geneva. In comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected, he said.

But that number is quite suspect. And even if somewhat accurate, it’s premised on medical systems that aren’t overwhelmed — how might the number change if hospitals were unable to admit patients?

In ”Could the Covid-19 Pandemic Collapse the U.S. Healthcare System?”, Charles Hugh Smith notes that

U.S. healthcare's obsession with maximizing profits by any means available has transformed healthcare from a calling to just another burnout job in the Corporate America profit-maximizing grinder. A long time general practitioner (physician) recently explained the consequences of this transformation should the pandemic engulf the U.S.

What the physician said is too long to quote here without a potential copyright violation, so please check out the post.

The British government has said that up to a fifth of the workforce may be off sick during the peak of a coronavirus epidemic in the UK.

Image what happens if/when that happens in America.

Supply chains are breaking down all over. Hints and clues everywhere. N95 masks and hand sanitizer have already vanished from shelves, and even toilet paper has been hard to find. Anecdotally, some food items are in short supply (a YouTuber I subscribe to mentioned that his Costco was completely out of white rice, something they typically have many pallets of). Sure, these may be localized shortages that could be managed over time, but we’re starting to see nation-states banning exports of critical goods:

I’m by no means a great fan of David Stockman. He buys into the “impeachment hoax” and “Mueller witch hunt” drivel. But as to the effects that Covid-19 is likely to have on the economy,
he has some cogent arguments.

…unprecedented fragility is becoming evident as public health authorities around the world aggressively move to contain the Covid-19 contagion. This will mean separating workers from their workplaces, consumers from the malls, diners from the restaurants, travelers from the airlines, hotels and resorts and much more like and similar disruptions to the supply-side of the economy.
In short, the world’s supply chains are buckling and freezing-up, thereby causing production and incomes to fall abruptly. In turn, shrunken incomes and cash flows will pull the legs out from under the edifice of debt and speculation that has been piled atop the American economy.

To be sure, we do not know exactly when the brown stuff will hit the fan. But we do know that Washington’s Empire abroad and phony prosperity at home are terminally failing and that the sell-by date draws near.
We also know that whatever comes next, it won’t be MAGA. Not by a long shot.

Post beneficiaries:
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