My My! Did you see the market pump?
While I want to actually start waxing lyrical about the BTC pump, I find it even extra amusing that a lot of crypto KOLS are currently calling this pump "the new bull run" because they saw BTC go from 63k to 72k.
Their theory is that since we didn't see a proper pump in the last cycle, that this means the pump is now. I've seen a lot of crazy ideas, because of some decent gains in the past 24 hours and it's quite bizarre how clueless people are about how the market is actually supposed to work..
Again.... I remember that the movement of price in a negative or positive trend is what controls sentiment.
Now imagine if what we had in the last 24 hours was an actual crypto dump, let's say to the 48k range, you'd hear folk saying "crypto is scam, it's over, we're dead" and all that exclamation. I mean it's very much evident in the entire space.
Permanently emotionally damaged people
This is actually a thing.....
A few people on Hive are currently saying Hive is either dead, dying or completely gone.
These people are obviously justified in their claim, and because of this, they're probably not going to be anywhere when Hive picks momentum. They'll probably quietly take profit and then wait for a few years to start complaining again.
So basically this sentiment is understandable, but what I've learned about the market so far is that sentiments are different from what is real in crypto and many people don't know this.
On the flip side, it's honestly great to see the pump, I call it a great relief after a crazy dump that already started to take alts to the cleaner. But was 59k (which we saw maybe two months ago) the bottom then? Absolutely not.
I still stand on my opinion that we're going to taste that 55k (or a bit lower) range again, and that would be the actual bottom. I think this is an important relief that the market actually needed. It was honestly becoming or looking too depressing and this came in the nick of time.
Perps getting liquidated
A lot of people complained about their short positions on BTC being wiped out, and a lot of these people are going to panick and start longing BTC again, simply because the gurus told them that it's now the bull run.
When they could have actually left their position and wait for the market to correct, and then they can recover their losses, but no, they'll open a long position, wait for it to try and hit 80k, only to be hit with the reality that we're in an actual bear market and reliefs are possible, just like we get dumps too in actual bull runs.
However I think there's no harm with being delusional, I was there for a very long time, and honestly it's not a great place to be in, but everyone is likely to be be there until they wise-up.
It will take you time to look at patterns that are legible, and seeing the market or whatever coin it is, for what it actually is. I'm honestly not longer a moon body or a dump boy. I try to look at every pump or dump from a point of view that's credible and not from a sentimental point of view.
This isn't to say you're going to automatically overcome the feelings of sentiment that comes when the becomes too overwhelming.
Hell! I don't think a lot of alt holders are even happy, they haven't been in over 5 years. Also, this isn't saying "don't be happy for every pump" it's just me saying be realistic and emotionless about it.
Already predict it, see a possible of it happening, do your analysis, understand the market from a realistic point of view and have plans for every pump or dump until the market is finally ripe for taking profit after the BTC halving in April 2028.
Make profit if you can
This doesn't mean you cannot day trade and take profit along the way. Infact if you're a very credible trader, then I'll advise you to actually do a lot of trading and make some money along the way, but if you're not, then you'll probably need to actually do a lot of research on how it works.
Again, doing crypto without emotions is the only way you can think with your brain, and the only way you can make credible choices. It's taken me wasted opportunities and years of being too emotionally attached to learn, and maybe it's too late for me, but I think 2028 will give everyone another opportunity again.
Don't be carried away with the short market pump, it's not a bull run, and it's 59k was certainly not the bottom. Do your own research though, make your own mistakes and gain your own personal knowledge.
Although I'm glad that BTC pumped, like you, I am not all that excited about it. We're just as likely to see a drop. The real gains are from slow incremental lows. The big jumps and dumps are noise on top of the overall trend. It's way too early to declare this a bull market. We won't know until we've been in the pattern over several weeks.
Although I agree with your analysis, I still hope you're wrong about touching down to $48k.
The reason I agree with you is that macroeconomics does affect the market. But, as with gold, which is bigger than BTC, it is manipulated to wipe out levered positions up or down. Gold was held rather flat for decades until recently that reserve banks started dumping treasuries and buying gold.
I expect that the big players will suppress BTC as much as possible, but even they won't be able to stop the long term upward trend. Smart money will take advantage of the suppressed price to accumulate, reducing the circulating supply.
I think where BTC differs from gold is that BTC trades 24/7, whereas physical gold is more difficult to trade. We may start to see that change with PAXG and XAUT being traded.
I hope I'm wrong too and we don't get to the 48k range, I hope the word case scenario is we just stay in the 55 to 60k range as the bottom, but at this point, it's looking like it might drop to that level.
I think people calling this a bull run are probably people who do not understand how the market works, they're a lot of them who are influencers and pushing the narrative that it's the bull run. They're also doing this to push some random scam coins and convincing people that since it's the bull run then the market will continue pumping and they won't lose money.
It's just very strategic for these guys. Scam coins mostly sell when the market is pumping and everyone is euphoric.
I also agree that the price won't be suppressed for too long, and I also think we may only begin to see some bull pumps from 2028.
Thanks for the detailed reply.
Trump just said he wants to buy btc and other cryptos that explains it 😅
He said that? Wow. That explains it lol
Yeah, so I'd take the pump with a grain of salt
Well let's see how long that one goes
I agree with your outlook, and in order for someone to make money, others need to lose. The pumps aren't anything to say about unless the price can be sustained, and it could just be people flushing out the bears before pulling it lower. Those margin calls can be deadly.
Yeah, the pumps definitely needs to hold for at least 3 to 6 months for one to even begin to consider if this might be a "run", but for now, I just think it's one of those things and anyone who is trading should make their profit and just move on
A pump is nice to see, but I agree it’s way too early to call it a bull market.
i didn't really catch the pump but it's a good one, even hive got up