Is there going to be a war in Ukraine?

The answer has to be Yes.

Putin was 39 when the Soviet Union collapsed. He viewed it as a catastrophe, and was particularly upset when republics like Ukraine and Lithuania declared independence from Russia.

Initially Russia thought it could exert influence over the former Soviet republics via an informal Russian Commonwealth. It would have been a successful strategy if the Russian economy had done well. Economic success has a gravitational pull.

Unfortunately Russia is a kleptocracy. As soon as a business starts doing well, cronies of Putin turn up to take a cut. So people with business ideas simply emigrated to places that allow them to keep their profits. Thus Russia with a population of 146 million has a smaller economy than Italy with 50 million people - and it's not as though Italy is a great success.

Naturally, the former Soviet republics gravitated to the west instead.

So Putin has been taking back land by force. Chechnya was forcibly brought back into Russia, Georgia was invaded and land stolen from them, and in 2014 Crimea was invaded. Now 100,000 troops are massed on the Ukrainian border.

Putin is a man in a hurry. He is 69, and running out of time to get the Soviet republics back.

He probably thinks he won't get such an optimal moment to invade as the present. Europe is in the grip of an energy crisis and won't dare help Ukraine lest Russia turns the gas off. The United States is pre-occupied with domestic problems, and their main foreign policy priority is China.

So whether Ukraine survives the assault will depend on the willingness of Ukrainians to fight to defend their country.