You Cannot Time The Market

in HODL2 months ago

Hey Jessinvestors

As Bitcoin starts to break 10k, I'm seeing a lot of excitement in the market, we're seeing scams come out, moon boys and girls calling new tops and all-time highs, and the "bubblenomics" of Bitcoin starting to slightly boil. Seriously, it doesn't take much for these people to want to rally, they've been waiting years since 2017 for their time to shine and it could almost be upon us.

The truth is there's going to be a lot of FUD and Shilling and both will have plenty of miss information but one thing I can tell you, to avoid is anyone saying they can call tops or bottoms or when to buy-in.

Evaluating your information

If they knew, they wouldn't share it with you, they'd be securing their positions and then just waiting to buy and sell making millions and never needing a cent from you on Patreon or YouTube ads.

Always question the information you get in the crypto space as well as the person providing the information. If they don't openly admit their biases and agendas, you'll have to assume what they are but don't be fooled, we all have them.

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Market calls are easy money

I guess this heading is quite misleading but yes market calls are easy money. It's easy content to make into a 10-minute video with some fluff narrative and charts and saying if the price is going up or down. As prices go up these TA and market accounts do pretty well.

They don't create this content to inform you:

  • They create this content to get easy views they can monetise.
  • They create it to shill their affiliate links and get you buying and them earning a commission
  • They create it because they were paid to make the video
  • They create it because they have a position they want to liquidate and leave you as the bag holder.

If hedge funds with billions under management with the best information and tools can't call the market, what hope is there from someone with a YouTube channel?

Come on be serious with yourself.

Don't time, average in

Trying to time the market is dumb, you're only guaranteed to lose money and give yourself a whole lot of stress in the process. I pulled up a chart of the run to 20k and what you can see is literally 10 calls, these are either over 1 - 3 days where you had to know to get in to make money.

Screenshot 20200728 at 12.13.07.png

Trying to find those calls are almost impossible, yes there will be people who buy-in at the right time, but that's a minority and they'll pump that good luck to the moon but they can't replicate it.

If in 10 days of swings you can go from 700ish to 20k you're better off just dollar-cost averaging and trying to stack sats. If you want to make money in this market its, not about timing it's about position sizing, you can up your DCA when you feel like it and this is where you can be strategic in improving your positions over time.

At the end of the day, more sats should be the goal, not more dollar value, if you have sats, the value will come. This is not a sprint, its a marathon, pace yourself.

Have your say

What do you good people of HIVE think?

So have at it my Jessies! If you don't have something to comment, comment "I am a Jessie."

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I agree that there are a lot of "fake experts" out there... as a matter of fact, they are a majority, but still, there are a couple of people who don't look everything through eyes of killing others and earning over others' dead bodies... lol... :)

If I care about my friend and community here, I bet that there is at least a couple other that do the same...

Anyways, don't know who made that calls from that chart, but that's a bit ridiculous... lol... All arrows are showing on the "top" of the chart at that moment... or, the HIGHEST price at the particular moment... lol... That's a good example of "fake experts", as even the dumbest person knows that you never BUY HIGH and SELL LOW :)

Don't get me wrong... Nobody knows where will any coin go in the short term, but ALL of us know where it goes in the long term :)

Cheers! Thanks for sharing your thoughts!

Oh totally, I mean do you really think if these people are so good they'd be handing out the information? No they wouldn't, they wouldn't be selling courses either, they'd be managing funds and you'd have to knock on the door to get in. Everyone else is just bs'ing and making money off ignorance

The chart is not a call, its to illustrate that the pumps up to 20k aren't a straight line, they were 10 - 12 days over 365 days so trying to time it is damn near impossible.

I fully agree with that last line, its not about the asset, its more about the asset class, what ones you get into within crypto yes they matter but the space at as a whole is moving upward and to the right

i sold my BAND for ETH, but now i want to get back into BAND, haha ... human emotions

Lol I could never be one of those i'd lose my mind calculating all the possibilities. I'm more of a set and forget type, sitting patiently and waiting

Timing the market is impossible.

I don't know why people think they still can, I'll stick to my dollar cost averaging

Yep that's the best anyone can do I think.

I always say it, no one knows the market direction. the best you can do is either to do proper risk management or like you cost averaging.
trade against the satoshi not the dollar..

i hope this bull run pumps hive too

Exactly, you can either pick an asset class and take a few positions you feel are promising and hold them for extended periods of time, or DCA. Anything else is straight gambling.

I'm pretty sure it will, since all alts are anchored by BTC, it provides the floor. Yes BTC can sometimes absorb alts but if it goes on a rampage it usually brings its ugly cousins with it

I pray it does..

No need to pray, you only need to stack sats and wait

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