Today, it's been a month to the Steem Hard Fork when SP power down period was reduced to only 4 weeks from the earlier 13 weeks.
So for all the Hivers whose SP were stuck there, it is now 100% liquid, if they actually intended to exit that platform. Most of them were already selling and swapping it for Hive for about 3 months now.
These were the times when there was excessive Sell pressure on STEEM and a Buy pull on HIVE. But depite this sell presure, STEEM was quite successful in maintaining its price over 20 cents throughout this period. Now after this sell pressure gets over, logically its prices should rise.
With a lot of SP now unlocked from the Steem platform, it has become a gold mine for curators with curation returns as high as 30% to 36% APR. This kind of RoI should result in increase in its prices as it will attract buyers.
On the other hand, I believe, total staking on HIVE must have increased during this period. So the RoI on HP is somewhere between 15%-20% APR only.
|Source: https://steemd.com/||Source: https://hiveblocks.com/|
But if we check the above data, we don't find much difference. Out of 385.8M STEEM, only 144.3M STEEM are powered up. Similarly, 137.3M HIVE are powered up out of total 380.5M HIVE.
HIVE prices didn't see any significant rise despite of continuous buying / swapping with STEEM.
So now that buying phase is almost over, will it be possible for HIVE to hold to its 25-26 cent level in the short to mid term? Or will STEEM prices jump to a new high of this year in the near future?
These are the questions I was pondering over for a week now. But now I don't think, any of these facts are going to make any significant impact on both assets' prices. They have essentially parted their ways now and will go their own way!
What do you think? Will STEEM rise and HIVE fall in the near short term?