Even CNBC is talking about the upcoming Halving in Bitcoin...
This block reward halving is very different than past halvings...
Just for a tiny example, even the traders on CNBC's Fast Money are talking about the upcoming halving and it's possible effects on prices...
Can you guess when the last time that happened was?
I'll give you a hint... pretty much never.
That goes to underscore how much different the crypto market is today vs. 4 years ago when bitcoin had its last block reward halving.
Even the mainstream finacial news outlets are covering the event!
Here's the clip from the show last night:
As you can see, they are covering it pretty well, and Brian Kelly has been a long time bitcoin bull, taking a lot of heat for over the last couple years as bitcoin has mostly been in a bear market.
The times they are a changin...
The crypto world today is pretty much unrecognizable from where it was 4 years ago.
4 years ago CNBC was not talking about bitcoin halving events, there were only a couple hundred cryptocurrencies in existence, there were only a handful of popular crypto exchanges, there weren't liquid derivative products to hedge with, and STEEM was just being presented to the world.
Bitcoin was trading for roughly $500 per coin and for the most part, people believed it was only being used by drug dealers and criminals.
Fast forward to today and there are literally tens of thousands of cryptocurrencies, hundreds of popular crypto exchanges, billions in liquidity in bitcoin derivative products, and fund managers are even talking about buying bitcoin as a portfolio diversification tool.
Oh, and bitcoin trades for around $9k and mentioning it won't have people assuming you are some underground drug trafficker.
The times sure are a changin....
The Bitcoin Halving...
Ah yes, the halving, the elephant in the room.
The fundamental event that is likely to shape the next 4 years of bitcoin trading.
As I type, Bitcoin's next block reward halving is slated to take place in roughly 9 days time.
Depending on what part of the world you live in, that should place the halving on May 12th, 2020.
You can follow the countdown in real time here:
(Source: https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/)
So, what should we expect?
Give the fact that the crypto world is very different than it was 4 years ago, it's very difficult to predict exactly how things are going to play out.
During the last halving we saw a decent sized pullback immediately following the halving that ultimately bottomed out a couple months post halving before the really big parabolic run up started that ultimately took prices close to 20x previous highs.
Even though things are different, I actually think we may see something similar happen again, but on a smaller scale.
I think we are going to dip post halving for several weeks before bottoming out.
However, once we do, I think you want to buy that dip because we begin another parabolic march that ultimately takes prices well beyond previous highs.
I don't believe we will see 20x previous highs, but when the dust settles, I think we could very well see 5x those previous $20k highs.
And I think we will see it happen before the end of 2021.
There's my post halving playbook, what's yours?
Stay informed my friends.
*Videos courtesy of https://www.youtube.com/
-Doc
Actually when we consider the pandemic situation, I think it's unlikely to find new investors who are eager to invest in such a volatile asset. That's not about Bitcoin, it's more about to the timing. Personally, I foresee that we are about to see a new dump. In long term, Bitcoin is beyond comparison but,for now, we will delay the Fear of Missing Out as we are at the top of Fear of Death.
That could certainly play a major roll in this as well. As of right now people are expecting the pandemic to be on the downward side as things are starting to open back up... but if we were to get another surge in new cases and things shut down again, I think your scenario probably plays out.
I tend to agree with you and feel the bigger question is whether alt-coins follow suit.
Bitcoin has, at times, shown the ability to lift all "ships". Will it happen at this time?
As you said, the crypto world is so much different than it was before that it is pure speculation how things will unfold. That is why forecasts are all over the place, everything from Bitcoin to the moon to it will collapse to $1,000.
It will be fun to watch no matter what.
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Hopefully they figure out a way to go up, regardless of what bitcoin does. It feels like a long time since the last full on altseason. We have some small ones here or there that haven't lasted long, but not a full season. I think we are due.
The problem with the alt space is that it is riddled with empty promises.
Most of the top 100 has produced very little and done a poor job attracting attention.
Even EOS, for all the money and bravado, has not gotten much mainstream attention.
Ethereum is starting to make a bit of noise so could draw some money in like Bitcoin. Outside of that, there isnt much.
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Point of highest optimism...
So, it's all downhill from here?
Yeah looks like enough shorts are wiped to free fall.
It happens the opposite of predictions most of the time.
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Yes, Mr. Market does tend to do the opposite of how everyone is positioned. Which means if people are positioned for a dip, like me, it may not happen...
and recently cnbc added the BTC ticker to their website which is really huge considering the amount of impression hits they get every month through visits the next wave of mass adoption is here almost
Yep, that is a big deal. Good catch!