What to expect with the next Bitcoin Halving...

in GEMS7 months ago

Bitcoin's next block reward halving is a little over a month away, what should we expect?

If it is anything like the last couple, we should expect some major fireworks!

However, these major fireworks don't usually happen until several months post halving.

Lets take a look at the past couple halvings for some guidance...

(Source: https://twitter.com/search?q=bitcoin&src=typed_query)

Halvings by the numbers...

Past performance does not necessarily predict future results...

First Halving:

  • November 2012

Bitcoin saw a 13,000% price increase. With a low of around $2 and a high of over $270 dollars. The high was roughly a year post halving.

Second Halving:

  • July 2016

Bitcoin saw a 12,000% price increase. With a low around $164 and a high of around $20,000. The high was roughly 17 months post halving.

Third halving:

  • May 2020

If Bitcoin were to increase another 12,000-13,000%, we would be looking at a price of around $400k per BTC.

But what if it does?

I'm not expecting things to go up nearly as much this time around...

I think the law of large numbers will start to impact things as we move forward, which means I don't think we will see anything close to $400k within the next 18 months.

Either way though, I do think we will be seeing some major fireworks before the end of next year.

Past patterns point to bitcoin topping out sometime between May and December of 2021 at a price many multiples of its current price.

And that $100k number just sounds awfully round to me! :)

Stay informed my friends.

-Doc

Sort:  

Today I bought 1.5 bitcoin .
I sold 250k of stellar lumen for that, and I paid 125k euros. So I need BTC to sky rocket, to break even.

LOL... then don't sell it.

I had to sell something with big loss to limit tax from gains 😉

My guess was around $40k and that's why I'm hoarding BTC now...

Don't sell it until it gets there. Having a high mark is all it means.

I have no rush selling... All the corona virus restrictions mean I have lots of more cash to use for crypto... I'm still waiting some FIAT to arrive Coinbase Pro, so I can buy more... Coinbase Pro has a lot lower fees than Coinbase, but it takes longer to deposit and withdraw due to using just wire transfer instead of PayPal or credit cards.

Check Crypto.com LOL =) And if you never heard of it... then use a referral... I have many on my posts.

I try to avoid referrals as much as possible... I only use Coinbase because I can move funds without network fees...

Not sure... why referral could be something bad. I use them all the time. If there is something for me.. why not give something to someone.

Anyway, apart from the referral... this is way better than coinbase in my view. And I have been a user of mt gox, coinbase, AND many others failures... Yes... coinbase was a failure at some point. Like Bitpay... which I had a card too.. and now I don't. =)

I can only say one thing for you... check Crypto.com. If you don't like it... All good.

Respect! 😎

A lot of people think referrals are like spam, things we can live without... I don't currently have enough crypto to warrant moving everything to another exchange... I just started buying again about a month ago... Before that I cashed out all my crypto using Coinbase and PayPal.

You should never have that mate...

enough crypto to warrant moving everything to another exchange

exchanges are centralized... and can freeze all your funds without ANY prejudice or lawful order.

You are only protected if you hold your own funds.

But I understand why you mentioned what you did. I did called it (spam) at some point too. And then I knew something "even before Protoshares"... then Protoshares 1, then v2.. then Bitshares... then eventually (late) STEEM, then EOS... and the next one is due in 2022 =) Been on a LOT of stuff since 2013... I can tell you... YOU DON'T WANT TO HAVE MONEY AT eXchanges! =) and yes.. that includes Crypto.com...

For me its just a fun place... to play with. Not to have my entire money ever!... You should only have there what you can afford to loose... and believe me. You can loose it. I have lost many BTCs... already... Just don't want the same to happen to others.

Stay safe.

Bitcoin price will be something unexpected.

I am also expecting something unexpected

it would be indeed an event to see ... hoping for a good price pump which is much needed by the economy

thanks for this very informative post!

True...the big jump always came post halving...but you never know.
A lot of people also have to sell BTC now to "survive"...

Good post!

I think you got timings right. However I believe halving pump will be disappointing now.
Price will probably drop to 5k or even below before halving. Then after it we get lots of hope and positive vibes what might bring us near 10-15k. Then back down some bit until we see next big action little over ath... maybe 20-25k... if super lucky and good vibes to 30k.

 7 months ago Reveal Comment

At that time, alts will always follow bitcoin right?

He's not following... he's just has too much resources and does not know how to use them...