Does the House always win?
A look at how kryptogamers (https://kryptogamers.com/) is doing as a 'provably fair' gambling website.
The data is taken from the 20th March 2020 at 15:30 UTC, the approximate birth date/time of Hive (give or take a few blocks) to around 10pm UTC today, 6th February 2021.
Within the date range set out above, and first removing a couple of reward/advertising sends to @kryptogamers and the account's own 'banking' sends, @kryptogamers has sent and received a total of 19,277,947.78 HIVE. This amount has been moved between a total of 375 accounts.
To me, that is a staggering amount of HIVE to have been moved around by 375 accounts. From what I gather, you can't code sends/plays, but you can auto-play once the HIVE is in your roll, and so I believe deposits to be manually made.
Based on deposits and withdrawals (and not including HIVE held in the account for gaming), this is how the players are doing as a whole.
Of course, that doesn't tell that much of the story, and those that do use the site will be pleased to know that I'm not going to list any account names, unless they ask for a breakdown of their own account in a comment - I can hear them rushing to do so right now :)
Top 20 Winners
| Account | Sent | Received | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| hidden | 146 | 4552.893 | 4406.893 |
| hidden | 2991 | 6599.616 | 3608.616 |
| hidden | 1101.777 | 4400.935 | 3299.158 |
| hidden | 54.224 | 2279.613 | 2225.389 |
| hidden | 133327.043 | 134953.445 | 1626.402 |
| hidden | 0.6 | 1579.864 | 1579.264 |
| hidden | 1178 | 2453.877 | 1275.877 |
| hidden | 501 | 1503 | 1002 |
| hidden | 252470.357 | 253469.895 | 999.538 |
| hidden | 587.25 | 1550.451 | 963.201 |
| hidden | 24510.4 | 25247.149 | 736.749 |
| hidden | 96686.026 | 97274.876 | 588.85 |
| hidden | 2685.189 | 3264.266 | 579.077 |
| hidden | 17.95 | 581.433 | 563.483 |
| hidden | 15768.593 | 16328.408 | 559.815 |
| hidden | 9659.722 | 10172.061 | 512.339 |
| hidden | 11892.772 | 12402.857 | 510.085 |
| hidden | 5379.447 | 5828.225 | 448.778 |
| hidden | 51 | 479.657 | 428.657 |
| hidden | 4 | 423.744 | 419.744 |
Top 20 In the hole
| Account | Sent | Received | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| hidden | 3192968.389 | 3140066.104 | -52902.285 |
| hidden | 562756.808 | 518756.259 | -44000.549 |
| hidden | 1204351 | 1167942.872 | -36408.128 |
| hidden | 771363.8 | 754968.153 | -16395.647 |
| hidden | 483825.27 | 469123.986 | -14701.284 |
| hidden | 252228.6 | 237565.144 | -14663.456 |
| hidden | 174114.15 | 160899.205 | -13214.945 |
| hidden | 175085.287 | 162857.92 | -12227.367 |
| hidden | 693028.8 | 684198.327 | -8830.473 |
| hidden | 161632 | 155643.312 | -5988.688 |
| hidden | 90686.604 | 85367.963 | -5318.641 |
| hidden | 39807.597 | 35927.599 | -3879.998 |
| hidden | 40116.461 | 36668.976 | -3447.485 |
| hidden | 145550.595 | 142780.086 | -2770.509 |
| hidden | 47179.409 | 45353.189 | -1826.22 |
| hidden | 16806 | 15095.332 | -1710.668 |
| hidden | 58418.423 | 56808.604 | -1609.819 |
| hidden | 40883.5 | 39428.275 | -1455.225 |
| hidden | 58032.903 | 56899.488 | -1133.415 |
| hidden | 21279.55 | 20396.643 | -882.907 |
It's interesting to note the disparity between the biggest winners and biggest losers. The luckiest player taking just over 4.4k HIVE out, whilst the biggest spender has given up over 50000 HIVE, ouch.
I think my favourite account is 9th in the winners list - an overall profit of 999 HIVE with over half a million HIVE being sent back and forth between the account and @kryptogamers. As long as they are having fun, right? :)
So, does the banker always win?
Whilst it is possible, as seen above, to have a bit of luck and take something from the banker, in the end, they will always collect.
Since Hive, @kryptogamers has profited approximately 231,367.376 HIVE, and that is just Hive, following the fork. The site has been around a while, and you can also play on that other chain I've forgotten the name of.
These days, I keep my funds a little tighter to my chest - my account isn't on the list, and I intend to keep it that way.
Cheers,
Ash
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Gambling with tokens that already are super volatile in price sounds like gambling^2 to me.
A few double up - many double-down
For sure. Some accounts would look 5/10x bigger if they didn't play, that's the saddest part for me.
Oh I don't have to link you the post, you are already here. Was one of the losses you? Degen.
Nah I've only played on @klye's dice site mainly, was up for a while then just down.
I agree
It is incredible that people are willing to play these games.
An Orca in the hole is pretty crazy and I hope that none of the people in that loser list are the kinds of people who complain about their earnings :D Is there a profit/loss in the game, do people know how much they are up or down? Considering that the sends are manual, that 250K of sending for a profit of 1000 doesn't really make it worth it - that is a 0.4% return on time .
I'll keep the names out of it, but HiveSQL is free you know? :)
Not sure. A cooldown period / weekly deposit limit thing would be nice - not sure if they have that.
HIVE-wise, totally pointless. But did they have a good time? :)
Of the top 20 biggest losers, 1 is a whale, 1 is an orca, 4 are dolphins, and the other 16 are smaller. There are a couple of really sad cases in there :(
Maybe someone will look into it.
I would predict that most people do some kind of auto roll thing, or whatever TF they do there - I don't think anyone plays blockchain gambling games for real fun. Though, crack addicts like getting high too.
Maybe :)
Yeah you can auto-roll, which means you can be doing other things instead, that are fun.
yeah, you can watch netflix, while getting screwed in another tab.
and getting screwed...
"netflix and chill" for the lonely.
sounds more like "netflix and get grilled"
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I lost a dolphins value in steem... had a really bad period but quit playing so much since hive started
I have been getting decent amounts back on dividends though... not enough to compensate but I am not going to play like that ever again, lesson learnt. 5k steem at 0.1 is 500 usd but it can be a lot more
Yeah that's the thing. Playing with 1 cent chips is one thing, but when they could be 10x that quite easily...
Hey, hiveSQL is free? I thought it cost am arm and a leg these days?
Cor blimey, if that's the case I might do a bit of fannying about!
It is free. Just send 0.01 HBD to @hivesql and they will send the account id and password.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
yea, the dashboard shows how much you have won and lost, its just a sum to find out how much you have lost
Right, cheers :)
Are there any restrictions you can enforce on yourself, like weekly deposit limits?
nope, its will of power and I have been succeeding nicely in the last few months, just taking my dividends and not playing
Good to hear that, I hope you carry on and find something else to pass the time :)
This is fucking mental!! In a good and a bad way. I mean, if you can afford to lose the money and just love the gambling fair enough but I bet there are some on there that lose like fuck and whine about it. Think where some of those losers could be if they hadn't played?
Aye, there's a few have sent more in than they have in HP, way more. Not good!
I didn't know gambling was taking place at such an extent on hive.
Is there any other gambling site active right now?
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
https://dublup.io/ a prediction 'game' using PAL :)
I had this on my mind actually ( for sports matches using SPORTS ). Didn't know it already exists.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I guess we know where the term Go for Broke came from, from gambling until you are broke.
I hope the cause of this -52902.285 was at least fun for the individual.
Hopefully :)
Although it will be looked at as a less fun memory should HIVE 10x or more from here.
I think it is great that 1/3 are in profits, I would guess in a normal Casino you would have only 1-5% in the green over a decent period of time.
Yeah it's not a bad % actually!
!WINE
This, for me, is one of the huge downsides of decentralisation. The results of gambling addiction are bad enough when it is regulated, without regulation it can only intensify or . . .
Maybe someone will come up with a super helpful solution?
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I bet out of the Hive being sent to @kryptogamers out there, there are bets that are purposely made just to earn tokens via safe betting. A 94% chance of winning has a low return but with the same token payout of a bet that has a low % of winning but higher returns.
There's also another gamed EpicDice. It's also a really good one!
https://twitter.com/jlufer/status/1358399030762553350
hidden 0.6 1579.864 1579.264 <- If you are this guy please drop me a comment. I will invest in your gamble hands aka. send you 1 Hive.
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