Peaks to Valleys, And Back...

I was away from my laptop the whole day yesterday, as you can probably tell from the low-effort photography post I threw together on Tuesday. Just cracked open my laptop a few minutes ago, and before refreshing the Coingecko page, the browser was showing a total market capitalization for crypto of around $2.69 trillion.

That's ancient history now, as the current market capitalization for crypto sits a bit above $2.5 trillion. We dipped a bit lower the other day, with mass liquidation totaling over $500 million according to recent data. From what I've observed, this bull cycle is turning out to be a nightmare for leverage traders. Not for @edicted, though...

What's intriguing about the current market is that from a total market cap perspective, we're a bit above the 2021 high, but Bitcoin is still below the "official 2021 top" at $69,000. However, there are voices on Twitter claiming that the actual top was in May 2021 at $64,000 for BTC.

This is why BTC is now consolidating slightly above, or around, that level after its pre-halving rally that pushed it up to $74,000. It'll reach there in no time, but first, we need to deal with the Grayscale outflows and see the completion of the halving. That's when the real fun will commence, in my opinion.

Personally, I believe that this current bull cycle will be shorter than what the masses anticipate. In fact, if we take the $64,000 level for BTC as the true peak of the previous bull market, we notice that in 2021, BTC peaked about one year after the halving. Why do I consider the $64,000 level as the real peak of that cycle?

It's because selling there would have been the easiest, least stressful way to capitalize on that bull cycle. Thus, if we expect this cycle to mimic the 2021 one, then we should anticipate BTC topping sometime around April 2025. Sounds reasonable to me...

I can't predict where BTC will be at that time, and I don't attempt to predict anything, but I'll be looking to take profits from my investments at the beginning of 2025. I doubt I'll be able to pinpoint the top, so I'll focus more on "the meat in between."

So, it appears that Grayscale has caused much of the stress BTC has endured over the past few days, with the price dipping as low as $8,900 for a brief moment on Bitmex. Grayscale is accompanied by small fry in the current bloodbath, as I mentioned in a recent post when discussing the guy who bought $500 worth of BTC back in 2021, only to sell it now for a $1,500 profit.

The thing with the masses is that they either exit the market too soon or too late; they never get it right. And all of that happens because the masses are either extremely greedy or extremely fearful about their investments. Hence, they never break out of the cycle of wrecking their portfolios.

I know this from my own experience and hope to make a difference this bull market. Anyway, I hope you guys haven't sold at the bottom and that you're doing great. See you all next time. Peace!

Thanks for your attention,
Adrian