Bitcoin Analysis for 26/03/2021

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At the time of this writing, bitcoin's price is trading close to $52,200, after dropping over 6.5% in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko.

As we wrote yesterday, bitcoin's decreasing volume was an indication that a swing towards lower price ranges was incoming. We're now anticipating a move toward $50,000 since BTC/USD did not hold above $52,000.

The following critical level of support is close to the 21-day MMA, or Modified Moving Average, so we think there's a chance bitcoin may not drop much below $50,000 if it holds this price range.

There wasn't much exciting news to report on regarding bitcoin's price, except that most media outlets are considering a steeper decline will take place. We think it all depends on the number of buyers and how much bitcoin is being left at exchanges. If more buyers return to the market, we believe BTC/USD will rise rapidly as more and more bitcoin is outflowing from exchanges to personal addresses.

Therefore, we remain bullish on BTC/USD as long as:

  • BTC/USD remains above its 20-day MMA (red), 50-day MMA (green), and 200-day MMA
    (blue).
  • BTC/USD doesn't drop below $48,000.
  • BTC/USD daily volume goes above its 21-day Modified Moving Average soon.

Traders Tweets

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Today’s first tweet comes from Lex Moskovski, whose Twitter profile describes him as the CIO of Moskovski Capital.

Moskovski shared a chart of Glassnode showing the bitcoin

“Total Transfer Volume from Exchanges - Bitstamp.”
He also wrote that:
“Glassnode shows 29,884 #Bitcoin exiting Bitstamp in 10 minutes.”

Essentially, on-chain data points to a series of transactions moving bitcoin out of exchanges into personal wallets.

In total, $1,5 billion were transferred to private addresses, which shows that whales are accumulating and don’t seem interested in selling in the short-term.

Let’s dig deeper.

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The following post comes from Rafael Schultze-Kraft, whose Twitter profile describes him as a data scientist, on-chain analyst, and CTO at Glassnode.

Rafael reshared a post from March 22 that contained a chart of the “Bitcoin: UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD)”. He also wrote that

“the strongest on-chain support currently at $47,000”.

Today, he added that

“Structurally, nothing has changed. I have yet to see a data point that points long-term bearish.”

Essentially, what Rafael means is that bitcoin’s price dipping towards $47,000 wouldn’t be unexpected since that price level saw many more orders than $51,000.

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The following tweet comes from The Wolf Of All Streets (Scott Melker), whose Twitter describes him as an investor, podcaster, and author of The Wolf Den Newsletter.

In his post, The Wolf Of All Streets made a snappy comment that although March is pointed at as a bearish month for bitcoin, April, on the other hand, is quite bullish.

Essentially, even though some traders expect a steep correction, the truth of the matter is that bitcoin’s price is known to reverse and start a brand new rally in days quickly.

This means that investors and traders usually don’t have much time to deploy new orders; hence, great timing is essential.

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The last post of the week comes from Dan Held, growth lead at cryptocurrency exchange Kraken.

In his post, Held shared a chart showing the logarithmic price growth of bitcoin, the average price growth after the previous halvings (blue), and the current price trajectory (orange).

The data points out a possible symmetry in the trajectory between the current bitcoin’s price and bitcoin's average price after the previous halvings.

If BTC/USD follows a similar trajectory, it could reach almost $400,000 sometime during 2021 and bottom out in 2022 at around $200,000.

Of course, this chart is pure speculation since

“past performance is no guarantee of future results”.

Still, it’s fun to tinker with the idea bitcoin could reach such high valuations.

That’s why we think that hodling bitcoin and using leverage to buy are both great options to take advantage of bitcoin’s potential price growth.

Price Prediction

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At the time of this writing, bitcoin's price is trading close to $52,200, according to CoinGecko.

Since the weekend, BTC/USD has been in a downtrend, and we think it may as well continue during the next few days.

Until bitcoin's price finds strong support, perhaps at around $50,000, we think the drop will ensue. Additionally, buying volume remains low, a sign that sellers are still in control of the order books.

Therefore, how do we think the price will trade today and during the weekend? As shown in the above chart, we believe that bitcoin could top close to $56,000 in the next few days, as long as buyers return to the bitcoin space. On the other hand, we don't expect the cryptocurrency to drop much below $50,000, near the 21-day MMA. If it fails to hold that level, then we think a drop toward $48,000 could play out.

To finalize, the VPVR shows a high number of buy orders between $46,500 and $50,000.

It also indicates that there are almost no sellers left above $62,000.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta



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