What a wonderful time to be on HIVE! I am enjoying the price movement, watching as HIVE continues to establish higher floor pricing, this bodes really well for the next year as we move forward and continue to build communities and applications for this technology. There is a lot to do!
A few days ago SIM dumped off a cliff! Some players cannot wait any longer to cash out their SIM bags, and the price hit new lows of 0.00061 swap.hive per SIM. Since then it has bounced back to its recent lows of 0.0015, now 250% up for whoever was poised enough to have that low buy order.
Right now is the time, if you are interested in playing DCity, to buy up some SIM or cards. It is not financial advise, but the upcoming release of a new user interface and 3rd edition, which marks finally the time that DCITY.io will be taken out of beta, this could possibly spark new interest in the game, even if only for a short while as existing players try to get the new cards.
Here is the list of the top holders of SIM. 11 of 12 are user accounts, and 2 appear to be the same user. @dcitygame is an account with unissued or re-appropriated SIMs. 50.65 million SIMs are held by these, the top 11 user account holders.
Who knows when the update will be releases? Nobody, but I have seen enough evidence to believe that it will come, and before too long. The lead UI dev has been leaving funny gifs in the chat about working hard, for example. Its always risky with tokens, but this is a bet I am taking, that SIM has a lot of room to run on the upside with limited downside potential as long as the position sizing is correct.
Just how much upside could there be?
The top target is the so-called peg at 0.005. From current price just about 0.0015 this represents a 333% increase from today.
The use for SIM is buying cards in DCITY, a popular defi farming game that is leagues ahead of any competition on ETHEREUM or other platform with tx fees. When a new edition of cards is released, demand for the new cards is, for at least a short period, enhanced. Players will spend the SIM they have, and buy up more if their saved up SIM is not enough for that demand. I think we can be pretty sure that at least some of the top players in the richlist above are going to spend large portions of their SIM to print new third edition cards and gain the benefits from the new COMBINE recipe feature.
Present value vs Future value
For the last several months, we have lived through a high tax, low price period in DCITY. When you do the calculations on the present value of the cards taking into account the present conditions, DCITY is still a quite profitable defi farming game with over 100% projected ROI.
When you consider even potential price increases, which will also progressively lower taxes, huge multiplier possibilities come into view. This is an asymmetric play using layered leverage.
While I personally think it is possible we see 0.005 'the peg' price, this is a long shot. A much more reasonable scenario comes into play, which still has huge multipliers.
0.003 SIM, 50% taxes
It seems unlikely that demand for SIM will not skyrocket after third edition release, because there are just so many new features. To activate combines, we need to get those construction sites, and everybody will want the rarest new cards like Warehouse and Military Bases. But because of the clever INCOME tax mechanism, as price rises the taxes will also fall, printing more SIM each day. It is quite possible that we never reach 0.005 directly because of this.
But lets say we reach 0.003. That's still a 100% double up from today's prices. Let's look carefully at the calculation of SIM income on the dcity cards, based on a 100% price movement from today's numbers.
In the 'good old days' A 10 income card used to go for 5 hive; 100 days of 10 sim was equal to 5 hive. With 80% taxes, and a 0.0015 price, 10 income cards produce 2 income per day, worth only 0.3 hive after 100 days. Farms, one of the cheapest 10 income cards, have gone for as low as 1 hive each, yielding about a 109.5% apr (not compounding) for anyone with GMO farming tech even at today's depression level economy.
But under these new, conservative conditions of 50% taxes and 0.003 price, we are now producing 1.5 worth of SIM every 100 days, a spectacular 547% ROI for anyone having bought farms at 1 hive. And this is just on the SIM dividends, to say nothing of the capital increase if after having recieved 547% apr for 100 days, you were to resell the farm at 2-3 hive.
This could net as much as 450% net return in a 100 day period, and its returns measured in HIVE. I will let your mind imagine the USD apr if during this time HIVE manages to go up in price. This is Layered Leverage at work!
Risky tokens be risky
This isn't financial advice, its gaming advice! Don't put more than you can afford to lose into a game, its not safe. All normal sorts of risks are involved here too, so make sure to protect your keys and you access to the internet as well.
As @gerber has said many times, most of the 'game' of dcity happens on the market. I have been posting my guides to playing DCITY for more than 1 year now, and I will continue to do so. Good luck to all players!
Freedom and Friendship!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta