Power-Down started: thinking out loud plans for the bear market.

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(Edited)

What, why?

Yes.

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This might catch you by surprise, I guess, since I have always been a biased permabull by definition.

However, like all the good things in life, everything must come to an end, and the bull market isn't an exception. According to previous cycles data, the bull market should be ending within a few months.

Personally, I expect the bull market to end within the release of Eth 2.0.

This means that I expect to have a blow-up top within Q1 2022 or sometime between January and March.
The aforementioned 'blow-off' top could even happen earlier in anticipation, we can't know for sure until it happens.

For that reason, I started a full power-down of my account to sell the top in a few months with my liquid HIVE. I'll come back stronger (hopefully as a whale) during the bear market.

How it was the last time?

By the end of 2017, we started seeing news about Bitcoin adoption by Institutional players. This fueled the last impulse of the bull run which x4'ed Bitcoin and x10-100 the rest of the alts. 3-4 months later, the bear came and plunged us into a +2 years crypto winter bear (for alts).

Like many others, I decided to stay 100% invested through the top and got broke not long after with +90% losses overall in my portfolio. It felt like a massive pain being 50% into STEEM back at the time, I capitulated in Nov 2018 and disappeared for 4-5 months.

Whatever it was the last time, it's time to prepare for the unthinkable.

Defining a contingency plan. Harder did than said.

The problem for people like me is that 99% of our wealth is floating around in crypto, and I hate banks. I mean, a lot.

By principles, I would prefer to throw again all my earnings down to the toilet rather than allowing a bank to be able to control me.

You cannot make me a slave, ever again.

On a side note, my local bank rejected financing me the other day because my earnings were 'too volatile ', and even rejected my offer of locking some cash in order to guarantee that I'll be able to face payments in the medium to long term.

Ok, Boomer.

Another silly joke like this one and I'll be fucking purchasing the branch office and firing you later in 2025. Period.

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Now in all seriousness.

I like to see what other successful investors/traders did back in the time. And by far my favourite is Secrets.

If you don't follow him, make sure you do. It's invaluable information. @SecretsOfCrypto
In fact, I could say that I stuck to his lessons when managing my portfolio and defining exit/out plans. DCA in/out gas has always been my rule.

Remember me taking profits back in late march? I was following this spreadsheet since I was a millionaire (on paper) back at the time. Based on emotions I would have hodled. But... I had to follow my plan. (Glad that I did).

With a few years worth of expenses covered, it's much easier to think bigger.

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Currently, we're at Phase 1/2 of the last impulse up for the bull market. Some big caps like Solana, Polkadot and Litecoin are starting to wake up (note that phases tend to overlap and can go back, lengthening the cycle).

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When the blow-off top happens, it's probable we have a 'grace period' to sell until we start correcting, this happened around the New year the last couple of times. You know what they say, History doesn't have to repeat but usually rhymes...

Act accordingly.

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Defining an exit plan (with % and all that stuff).

After the biggest question is solved (when to sell?), which is DURING the blow-off top (not long after!) comes the 'what to do?' or where to put the freshly acquired wealth. Let's break up.

let's assume and the hypothetical case of Eric, who started with 10K€ at the beginning of 2020 and now holds around 100K€ in crypto. Let's assume he does another x10 and ends up with around 1M€ within the blow-off top period of this bull cycle.

I'll make it very easy, you'll see.

1 - Security out of the game.

A part of the funds should be allocated to improving and securing your life outside of crypto (assuming you never took out profits), this means:

  • Clearing out existing debts for peace of mind.
  • Paying out the corresponding taxes (in my country it's around 20% of the profits)
  • Setting up a Liquidity net. (Cash in the bank).

Let's assume that Eric had 50K$ in debts (for whatever reason). Also, assuming that everything in crypto is profit (never the case), the corresponding taxes for 1M$ would be around 250K€ or 25% of profits (assuming a worst-case scenario when paying taxes).

I would also feel convenient a 100K€ Liquidity net. With that amount, you can easily live for years in a modestly way with occasional whims.

All of this sums around 400K€.

2 - Security inside of the game.

Once all the basic needs are covered, it's time to find stability inside of crypto, this means keeping a very big net worth into stablecoins while the storm happens outside and the crypto winter gets colder.

The goal will be to have a diversified basket of stable coins USDT,USDC,DAI,UST and even HBD.

  • In different chains (ETH, BSC, MATIC, SOL.... etc)
  • Different Protocols (Curve, Compound, Aave...)
  • Even Cefi platforms (Celsius, Crypto.com, Binance, FTX... etc).

Remember that security it's the #1 goal, so if the highest grade of security it's on Ethereum, we won't mind paying their fees. I personally hold most of my long term bags in ETH network, and my trading bags in BSC, for example.

With stablecoins it's not difficult to average a 5% APR, even 10% in some cases (cough ** HBD ** cough).
Let's assume a 7,5% as an average (currently on Curve is about a 9,45% so.. So you get the point, 7,5% is even conservative).

Let's put 300K€ of all the net worth of Eric here.

Boom! Assuming that 7,5% APR he now generates around 22.500€/year, that's about 1875€ (1481,25€ after discounting an additional 21% of future taxes).

I lived with less than 400€/month only a few years back, and the minimum wage here is around 900€. So yes, you can live off with 1400€ easily as a supplementary income. If you keep adding other income sources or a regular job at MacDonald's you're in a very good position (I would flip burgers on the bear just for the laughs).

3 - Skin in the Game

Until now we allocated 700K€. There's 300K€ left still. What do we do? Keep it in the game. ¿Why If we know for sure that a bear market is coming?

Because you can never be 100% certain of where the market will end. In case it expands a bit more you still have skin in the game and enjoying awesome profits on the way up while you keep selling. Don't fool yourself thinking that everything will go up forever, sooner or later, a big correction will come and bring us a -50% correction for Bitcoin and a -90% correction for most alts.

Regarding the funds I would allocate them like this or similar:

20% or 200K€ into Bitcoin.
10% or 100K€ into everything else.

'Everything else' means a bit of ETH and other solid alts, in my case that means ORN, AVA, DAO, HIVE, and other HE tokens. Keeping a stake to keep participating in presales, keep getting exposure into NFT's and Gamefi, while learning about the upcoming trends in the market. Remember, DYOR is always a must.

Learn how to scalp trade with a very residual amount (500-1000$) can end up as another relevant source of income. If you don't need the money it's only numbers on the screen.

What to do after 'Endgame'?

Once in the crypto winter, the #1 and most important rule is to wait patiently, remember all the chances that we had in the previous bear to buy? Remember November 2018 or March of 2020? Patience, we'll have more than enough time.

Learn to notice them and start buying gradually Bitcoin (I mean, very slowly).

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Bitcoin and its next halving will mark the path to follow. Then will be the time to start loading on quality Alts and the time for Eric to start converting his basket of stablecoins back into the game.

Then... rinse and repeat. If that cycle were institutions, In the next one will be whole states, governments & countries. Hyperbitcoinization is on its way.

Hope you enjoyed this post (Report for SEED soon btw).
Have a good weekend and don't forget to take profits on the way up. WGMI


You can join us on Telegram and follow me on Twiter.

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91 comments
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Rinse and repeat, that's the name of the game

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We're both old wolves in that game, right Eddie? Let's see how it goes this time.

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BEEautiful infogafic

im proud of you gwanpah, i we bwogged

now do one for the path to $14,000 HIVE like this with a mass takeover of the Catholic Church and all world relegions

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Very honest and helpful post for newbies. Thank you for warning the new crypto users of what is next for them.

Thank you for being honest and not play the game of « HODL $HIVE is worth $20 ». Maybe but everybody with big holdings should take some profit.

I wish you success and will follow secretsofcrypto from now on ! 😁

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99,9% will not believe me and will keep thinking blindly that Cardano it's the next big thing. (if Bitcoin can why can't Cardano go up to 100$?). Poor souls, that kind of people rejected buying Bitcoin for the whole 2018-2020 cycle and pretend to make it all back in a single trade. Not how it works.

Sorry sir, not anytime soon.

regarding HIVE, I believe it's currently undervalued as the recent success of splinterlands is showing us. Unfortunately, when the bear comes HIVE will also be crushed, like everything else. The blow-off for HIVE could easily be around 20$ as you said... HIVE never had a proper pump. This time, hope I catch it fully or almost completely liquid.

Remember, you can't escape the trend, I tried the whole of 2018 and 2019... and you can't. Sticking to the basics would have yielded a much better return.

However, I can't complain about what I've learned this cycle.

See you on the other side, Lemon. All the best and thx for the support.

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1000 HIVE = 1 BTC @ $50 hive

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(Edited)

Lolol.

Wish I'm mistaken, but I expect 5-10$ HIVE at maximum. I'll sell early? probably.

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nah STEEM ATH was $8 so i mean, we should get to $50 at least maybe $45 for @trump 's return to hive lol

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Thank you for this Plan of Action!

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If it helped me, probably will help yours :)

Keep the head cold! Never rush.

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Can only wish you the best. Seems like a good strategy, so I'll be watching and taking notes till I have enough stake and experience to do same in a few years

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Don't underestimate yourself.

It's perfectly OK 'not feeling sure' (me neither), but for that reason, it's important to document all the If's and proceed of action when XYZ happens. Smart traders act like this and it' exactly what I'm trying to do.

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If you trade with 10$, 100$, 1000$ or 1M$ a 1% move is the same percentage. IMHO the greatest traders out there learnt to make this with very vast amounts and still sleep well at night.

Good luck out there. Wish you all the best also.

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(Edited)

After reading your strategy here is what I'm thinking: I have around 4k Hive ( on both my accounts), let's say I sell it at $3, that's $12.000. A few thousand I keep in HBD to buy back Hive on the cheap. The rest I keep in stable coins to buy bitcoin and ethreum at the height of the bear market. What do you think ?

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Assuming that HIVE it's your only alt, the rule of thumb would be.

Sell 70-80% at the top for stablecoins (and the 20% remaining a bit more patiently).

At the bottom start DCA into Bitcoin. Remember that blogging rewards were very high at the bottom in HIVE terms, so this will be the moment to accumulate like mad.

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I hope you will guide the ignorate plebs like myself to get the timings right ( or about right). It's hard to know where the top is when it actually happens

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I'll be arounf for sure, you can always reach to me and ask what I'm thinking and I'll tell you for sure.

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I've been strategizing about that myself and saw secrets' tweet in the morning I believe. So this post came in the perfect moment, so thanks for that.

You forgot one thing though. To plan to sell this ugly NTF and bring the other Empo back 😂

Ok, thanks for the smart post and am looking forward to seed report.

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Kinda boring this week, we're being a bit unlucky with presales...

On the other hand, we're like 2-3K$ off from the 100K$ mark, which is a remarkable milestone.

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Boring is not always bad. I guess thing are going to speed up in the upcoming months and then you'll have plenty to report. Patience :)

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My biggest fear is selling too soon, I’m holding some liquid and powering down to get some more, I’m leaving majority staked in though. My stomach churns each time I think of selling and that it might be too early. I’ll appreciate any advice here

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One random thought:

Start powering down... wait until +2$ HIVE. Then start selling 0,5%-1% daily. Stick to it.

You'll need 3-6 months to sell everything and probably you'll catch the top, since you sold every day :)

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That looks like a nice plan

I'm dying to move more of my net worth to crypto but I don't have the balls to do so yet.

I think I have less than 10% in it right now and I think that's stupid low

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Indeed, If I had 1M I would put around 35-50% on stables at 7.5%-10%, then take what I need and compound from that pool. The rest would go to investments.

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In the end, the % allocations are a guide. Everyone has different priorities and plans

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(Edited)

If you look at the bitcoin chart it looks super weird. Im not expecting it be a blow off top, people have wised up. It will ALWAYS ALWAYS do things you dont expect .

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Agree, i think the same with Hive. It has become to much attention already. I think the plan of many is "sell high, buy low" and if nothing dramatic happens here, the hits should not become as massive as last time.

Depending on Hive does good, HBD doesn't explode and so on.

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It has always seemed counter intuitive to me to sell when it's going up, but this makes it much, much easier to relate to. Especially the side by side comparison between altcoiners. A and B. I have slogged along until I can almost taste 5k hive power and it makes me ill to think of drawing any off of it. I DO have other alts and a small amount of bitcoin, so perhaps I will follow this blueprint to gain some experience in trading.

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Really interesting strategy and one I haven't even considered yet. Have nearly 60 000 Hive and goes against everything I have thought about. Personally I am not selling my Hive as I am going to be here for everyone else and help them grow and if it is another bear for a year or two then hopefully double what I have now. I never invested in Hive besides time and this is something I feel I have to do but at the same time understand and respect the plan you have. Lets see how this plays out.

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In the end you have to do what makes you feel good, not what a random anime avatar told you to do :)

If you're happy and accept the possible outcomes, fck that shit. Relax and enjoy the ride.

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Totally right about that and enjoying the ride. I am also not blind to this as will be selling what I have outside of Hive and maybe keeping only a few which I have staked like AVA and Coti. Will get some ORN staked as well and the rest will be sold into USDT. Already this year ahs been a major success for myself so not losing all the gains.

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Taking profits is never a bad thing to do. I don't plan on doing anything right now as I am still building my account up but I do plan on doing something similar for the next cycle.

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I've been having an argument with my spouse about this. My idea was to sell a little bitcoin and invest it in dividend yielding shares (for the income). So he agrees, we sold some bitcoin in March, a little got invested in shares - but then he saw some video on youtube and put the rest of the money into polkadot. Sigh.

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IMHO dividend-yielding shares are another way to fool people.

The dividend that you get is discounted to the price immediately, so the dividend it's just an 'illusion' of profit, however, it's a very 'real' taxable income.

Just to put things in perspective, Berkshire Hattaway (Warren Buffet's company), never ever paid a dividend.


I feel sorry about your husband's attitude :(
He probably has a lot of qualities, but maybe 'not to be impulsive' isn't one of them.

Being 100% cold, I would recommend you store your own holdings in a segregated way (don't allow him to control anything, rather than his own budget).

This is how I do with my lady, we both have 6 figures portfolios, I like her to stay independent, and even though we learn and talk about it often (crypto strategy's/thoughts/feelings our accounts are 100% segregated and no one has control over the other in that sense.

Hope that works for you!

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I think you are right - separating finances is probably the way to go. That way at least one of us will have money to meet the joint finances when the proverbial hits the fan!

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i think in the near future hive will reach 2 dollars or maybe 3 dollars

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Cycle exist for a reason.
Someone will be out of this world to think
everything is static.
I love holding but at the same time
nobody cannot hold forever,
some folks hold cause they have other means
to earn in crypto.
Well said and it will pay dividends for everyone

!BEER

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The financial game is to diversify.

If you are dependent on financing for short term survival; then you need to be moving money from volatile investment to less volatile investments.

Precious metals and stocks are good diversification instruments for crypto investors.

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I dislike stocks, they bore me. After crypto there's no way back I guess :´)

Before precious metals, I will prefer Bitcoin 100% of the time. It won't work for me (I held gold in the past).

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Direct ownership of an equity is more interesting than indirect ownership which is what one gets with stocks.

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TBH i dont think the bears are knocking at the door just yet, paypal is swinging its stick with a few cryptos for its user base and people are just awakening from Covid in most countries and they are looking for something a bit different as prices are generally rising world wide.

In the good news though owning hive at any price fills you will a little of joy as it is earned by most folks and not bought by some trader chasing his tail like a dog with a flea on his.

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Not yet! In a 'few' months (3 to 6).

I thought the same in 2018. But the harsh reality is that I could have bought x15-30 the amount of hive that I decided to held later on.

Bought at 1,5-3$, ATL is 0,1$

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Sell at ATH all time high and Buy at ATL …all time low…. Works every single time.
. We will all be billionaires by this time next year.

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lol billionaires. That's a bit too much

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The problem for people like me is that 99% of our wealth is floating around in crypto, and I hate banks. I mean, a lot.

Same here... Not one dollar held on my bank account. Crypto and cash.

With stablecoins it's not difficult to average a 5% APR, even 10% in some cases (cough ** HBD ** cough).

Other options than HBD? I honestly can't trust it as a stablecoin. I've heard crypto.com offer decent apr for staking USDT.

I lived with less than 400€/month only a few years back

I did that in 2020 when the plandemic started. I still regret not buying more crypto then.

Bitcoin and its next halving will mark the path to follow.

What if this next halving anticipation has already triggered institutional FOMO and a super cycle?...

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(Edited)

Other options than HBD? I honestly can't trust it as a stablecoin. I've heard crypto.com offer decent apr for staking USDT.

Nexo is excellent for earning some solid yield on a safe, insured platform. Up to 12% APY (if you're a non-US citizen and choose to earn rewards in $NEXO tokens), with a max of 10% earned in stablecoins directly. I've used them for like a year and a half and earned some great returns, you can also hold other coins here as well and earn 6-8%.

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Pancake in BSC, Curve in ETH, I also heard that Terra (UST) is awesome.

What if this next halving anticipation has already triggered institutional FOMO and a super cycle?...

I believe the next bear will be less 'aggressive' for BTC and ETH, but this won't avoid a -50/-60% later in 2022.

Are you noticing your 'this time is different' masked in your words? Be careful my friend. I'm not a bear nor a blind bull. I suffered my part (like you) in 2018 while I biased/convinced myself with the 'this time is different' argument.

Hope you're doing great.

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Very interesting read.

I am in the process of selling my house. Hopefully I will manage to do so next month. Was thinking of investing most of that money in crypto. Will give this a thorough read soon and hope it helps me to create a plan that sets me up for the future.

Muchas gracias!

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Don't know what % of your wealth will be in that house, but that should be a tricky decision.

If you decide to invest some, DCA until you detect the top. Stick with the two majors (BTC/ETH).

Don't risk more than necessary. You don't need that.

El mejor de los deseos! Mucha suerte :)

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The money I will have available after selling my house is 3x my current portfolio/ money but still not a lot of money ( housese are cheap here ).

Stick with the two majors (BTC/ETH).

That is exactly what I had in mind and selling a chunk for stablecoins later.

I might also invest in a piece of land in the near future or another property.

Don't risk more than necessary

I feel keeping it as FIAT is a bigger risk but I get your point.

Thanks for the well wishes :<)

Un abrazo!

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Nice game you playing, when I read the title I got convinced to know the reason for the powerdown but now I know, it looks like a good plan.

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Already follow him.

I agree with you, but I would not sellout 100% hive. Think about an ETH move happens and you make the mistake to sell to early. It would suck :)

I don't sell my powered up hive. I set the risk in time.

To have, besides the price action some buffer.

IMO, no financial advice, let some hive ( cash) you don't need in Hive power. So worst case, you are in the game with something on cash you don't need.

Because I have the whale idea too. But we are really alone?

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Not to sound pedantic, but 100% of my HIVE Power is cash that I don't need.

I probably won't sell HIVE immediately, While I power down, I'll keep arbitraging HBD as I have already been doing. If HBD keeps at 1,2$ it's a very profitable way to go with only 3,5 days of locking of funds.

HBD is the 'pumpamental' of HIVE. SInce is much easier to keep HBD at 1,2 rather than pump HIVE, whales are suppressing the sales of HBD keeping the price high. Everyone else is buying the HIVE.

Clever whale/s.

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Sounds good.

In general im a big fan of liquid funds. And a way to earn an return + have it liquid is always the better way.

IMO the government votes could increase from 4 weeks to 13 weeks + and the regular power down could reduce to 2-4 weeks.

But I'm alone with it :D

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Not necessarily a bad solution per se, but it isn't frictionless at all.

HIVE POWER should be the gov feature on the Hive blockchain. No need to separate between a 'gov' and 'regular'.

I'm a fan of @edicted sliding power-down period proposal. 13 points = 13 weeks as starting point.

After that let people vote to reduce/increase (every month, for example) this sliding bar by 1 point each time. Over time holders would find their equilibrium being the minimum 1-week power-down.

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(Edited)

Good idea but to complex :)

Special on the security point. Will be to random IMO.

Imo 2 power up times would be more easy to handle. Like my proposal i have done a long time ago.

For example 1 week power down and regular 13 weeks. So everyone can split up funds in the weight they want.

Gov can be exclusive 13 week Power up.

Would make funds more liquid. Because its free on how much you power up 1week or 13 week it would give everyone the freedom what they want.

Edit: With a % interface it would it make super easy to handle it :)

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btw, Safu were also a good name for Seed :D Something for the next time :D

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Good exit plan. There is a lot of excitement in the cryptocurrency market so sticking to your plan is as important as having one. Good luck! 👨‍🚀

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I still think there is a chance the blow off top never happens and we are done with the 4 year cycle as it’s been. The only way bitcoin will crash like it has in the past is if it goes full mainstream adoption (I mean like El Salvador style) AND then govts do a fake out and try to ban it, or if tether collapses at the same time as hack as big as gox. I think these patterns are going to flatten out a bit in the long run.

Still I think you have a good plan. Even if it does flatten, you’ll still be better off than investor B who is better off than the average dude.

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How long have you been in crypto?

I notice a 'This time is different' argument, and all that you say it's true, but won't save crypto to be volatile. Mainstream adoption is still a long way to go. We're talking about years still.

Be careful my friend.

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I think the institutions WANT to work with bitcoin because it's better for them then the alternatives, but they are still trying to figure out how to maintain as much control as possible and they haven't figured out the best way to do that. At some point they are going to have to shit or get off the pot, and I that day is near. You may be right, it feels like mainstream adoption is right around the corner, but it may still be 3-5 years away and we will have a big repeat of 2018. Either that or the cycles will flatten. I really can't be sure either way.

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I pulled my delegations yesterday to get my powerdown started. This recent pump was a good reminder that I need liquid at the top. This is a perfectly laid out plan that is a bit more detailed than what I had laid out... but awesome... and very helpful to get me a bit more solid on where I want to go at this coming juncture. Thank you for sharing.

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(Edited)

So that's how a strategy looks like. Otherwise whenever I google trading strategy I only see Time frames and writing but they always essentially miss what to write. Now I have seen what I've looks like.

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What I've learned from being in markets for 20 years is every time you finally think you learned your lesson from the last time (or 3 times), it goes and does something else.

Too many people got burned in 2018 and are now looking for the exact same thing to happen because "cycles". Cycles change. Even people who weren't in the markets in 2017 are waiting for the crash because people who were in it have told them to expect it.

I'm not at all claiming I know what's going to happen but every time I see someone say they are waiting for the crash because it happened to them in 2018 the more I'm comfortable that its not going to happen.

Nice job on the taking profits in March though. It was very frothy.

We'll see I guess.

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I'm not looking for the exact same thing but as they say: ''History doesn't repeat itself, but usually rhymes''.

And so far this has rhymed with frightening precision. I know 100% sure that I won't sell the top but I won't hold through the bear suffering, that's for sure.

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That is probably why bears hibernate ( and sleep it out ).
To not have to worry about the markets ;<)

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I had the impression in May that the bull run ended, but there is a possibility of new heights for BTC and other coins after what we see lately. Ethereum proven that we are still not in bear with the August run it had. I can't say that we are in uncharted territory either. It looks very similar to the 2017 summer, so during September, I will be waiting for a possible crash on some kind of fud. If we are correct then we will be talking about ridiculous prices and market caps.

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I thought this was a very excellant article, unfortunately 95% of the people reading it will never follow this advise. They will continue to buy/sell based on the emotions of fear/mania, the very thing that keeps the crypto market volitile.

The big boys on Wall Street got to be big boys because they did two things. First they learned how to analyze companies and their stock and pick winners. The second thing they did was create an exit strategy!

Most people in the crypto world get and do the first part right, they spend hours researching and analyzing, finding the best coins with the greatest potential for return.

The second part is almost totally dismissed by crypto heads and never thought of at all! It does very little good to make a truck load of money in the markets if your truck never makes it to the bank. I mean the idea is kinda to fill your sacks with money right?

Taking profits is a lesson Wall Street learned decades ago, the years of the great depression were lessons well learned. You see it practiced as the market cycles up and then drops a bit as people and firms take profit from the market and line their pockets with money. These mini cycles are a give away of what is happening.

No I think you are dead on with what your doing and I picked up a few tips myself that I will be implementing immediately. The nay sayers here need to re-read this and think it through a little slower. It could be the difference in saying, "Wow look at all the money I made!" and, "What happened to all the money I made?"

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Thank you everyone for that kind of engagement! I think that I never seen such a pending payout on one of my posts (and even more considering I talk about starting a full powerdown of my account).

I upvoted (almost) everyone with a 100% upvote.

100% rewards for this comment allocated to @seed-treasury

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Do you think the bear market will affect Splinterlands assets?

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I can't know, but probably as long as DEC, SPS, and other Splinterland assets are affected.

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propositions of the past does not tell the future, do you think for real that there will be a bear market now that btc goes live in el salvador. Its the beginning of a new decade bro. Here have a slice of !PIZZA and relax ;)

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@empoderat! I sent you a slice of $PIZZA on behalf of @cooperclub.

Did you know Pizzabot in Discord has a bunch of useful commands? (2/20)

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