Is This A Different Bull Market For Bitcoin?

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This question has been in my mind. Perhaps it was in your as well. When Bitcoin lead the crypto market at the end of 2020 and the beginning of this year, it did seem like a repeat of 2017. If you remember the summer of 2017 was amazing for all of crypto. If we would to judge the same is going to repeat this summer Hive will easily be trading at $2 and above.

However, some of the indicator have been signaling end of bull run and start of the bear market. I have actually shared these thoughts in chats as bear market started when bitcoin was at around $57k. I don't know anything. There were just thoughts going through my mind.

The Daily Hodl just released an article on the topic - Bitcoin’s Bull Market Different From Previous Cycles, Says Analyst Benjamin Cowen – Here’s Why

The article starts with an interesting quote - "Each cycle, it’s going to get harder and harder to push it up the curve, and the reason, again, is because the market capitalization is growing, [and] it takes exponentially more volume to grow the price.”

It does make sense, by mind takes me to other places as this market is different because of interest in Bitcoin by entities with access to larger funds. While retail has proven to move markets when united, retail doesn't have the same funds available as the companies and countries. The narrative has changed from retail to save their properties to companies and countries.

I agree that interest in Bitcoin as store of value can be of great benefit to any entity regardless of how large their wallets are. Perhaps this is the difference in a current bull run. Perhaps what we have seen last couple of weeks is just a correction in the middle of the bull run. I would like to believe that. I hope it is so. But at the same time I am cautiously optimistic. I can't ignore the technical analysis that scream the opposite.

In any case, one strategy that has proven right for many for a long time is - HODL. One thing has been true about Bitcoin that it always goes back to its all time high price. Time is the only thing required. Given enough time, Bitcoin climbs back to its previous all time high and then some.

This bull cycle is same as the previous or not, we know in the end Bitcoin will outperform all other assets. Keep calm, hold away. It would be great to see another great run for Hive. Summers usually capable of a lot of surprises. Let's hope it a good one.

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14 comments
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Definitely is different; but I don't think we are in the bear phase yet. Although the next days will be decisive. However, even if bitcoin drops to 20k, I have the feeling the bear market won't be lasting as long as previous ones as well.

https://peakd.com/hive-167922/@tobetada/crypto-analysis-or-bear-or-bull

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(Edited)

Maybe the reason why it's different that because more companies and big investors joined. Of course it will be harder to make it thrive again. There are so many players manipulating the market. We may call them bitcoin abusers. The more we will have them, the harder is to build the trust in it. Before it was maybe mostly growing because of regular people investing in it. Now those whales can change a bit the game. So, we have just to adapt and avoid the maximum, all FUDs.

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More interest by companies and entities with access to larger funds does make it different. And you are right there will always be those who try to manipulate markets.

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In the short term, I think the bull run is over tho.

Although with the current adoption of crypto.. Another bull run might occur in a not so long time from now.

In the end, those with strong hands will be happy in the future

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Avoiding short term speculations and focusing on long term investment does seem to be a better approach.

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I agree.. Identify a good project and buy into the project and next 5 years the returns will be greater than anything one expects

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In any case, one strategy that has proven right for many for a long time is - HODL.

I think it's almost impossible to tell which direction Bitcoin is headed in the short term. However, it's pretty clear in the long term- UP :)

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There is one simple thing to remember - short term market moves are irrelevant to long term investment.

The long term story is this.

  • Supply of BTC is fixed and increasing slower and slower as the years go by.

  • Demand for BTC is growing larger and larger as the years go by.

  • Supply of USD is "infinite" (according to the Fed) and is increasing faster and faster as years go by.

  • Demand for USD is slowing year by year as irresponsible Fed and US government policies both debase the currency and use it as a weapon against other countries.

There is only one way this story ends.

Trading on volatility is just clever gambling.

Just HODL.

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Yes you are right. Continuous demand for a scarce asset like Bitcoin makes short term market moves irrelevant. Good points to remember when price go down. :)

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I just hodl in the corner these days 😂.

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