Bitcoin saw a huge spike in new addresses last week, possible precursor to bull run?

in LeoFinance2 months ago

Bitcoin seeing strengthening fundamentals in the face of flat price action

Bitcoin saw something unusual last week, it saw a massive increase in new addresses.

This might not sound like that big of a deal, and by itself it's not really, but the interesting thing is that this happened while the price was flat to down.

Normally we see increase in addresses when the price is going up.

Not only did we see a large increase, it was the largest increase we have seen in the last 2 years.

Check it out:

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(Source:

1313241838875226112/photo/1) twitter metadata:Q29sZUdhcm5lckJUQ3x8aHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0dGVyLmNvbS9Db2xlR2FybmVyQlRDL3N0YXR1cy8xMzEzMjQxODM4ODc1MjI2MTEyL3Bob3RvLzEpfA== ~~~

Over the last two years bitcoin has usually seen about 5k-10k new wallet addresses each week...

Last week we saw over 25k new wallet addresses!

Which, as I mentioned above, was the highest level in over 2 years.

It can be seen ever more clearly on this chart here:

image.png

(Source:

1313241848165658625/photo/1) twitter metadata:Q29sZUdhcm5lckJUQ3x8aHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0dGVyLmNvbS9Db2xlR2FybmVyQlRDL3N0YXR1cy8xMzEzMjQxODQ4MTY1NjU4NjI1L3Bob3RvLzEpfA== ~~~

Why is this happening?

Honestly, I don't have a very good guess as to why.

On first thought some people might think it has to do with the Bitmex news and users fleeing the exchange in mass, however, the majority of these new addresses were being created well before that happened.

There were some on Twitter speculating that it has to do with China.

According to the poster, China has started running a promotional campaign on bitcoin and crypto over the last couple weeks.

More on that can be seen here:

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(Source:

1309352583492845568) twitter metadata:RG92ZXlXYW58fGh0dHBzOi8vdHdpdHRlci5jb20vRG92ZXlXYW4vc3RhdHVzLzEzMDkzNTI1ODM0OTI4NDU1NjgpfA== ~~~

China has historically been pretty critical of bitcoin and crypto but, and this is a big but, the majority of mining takes place in China and perhaps China is starting to realize something...

They hold more bitcoin than any other country and it behooves them to promote it.

Perhaps they are realizing that bitcoin has a decent chance of being a widely used global settlement layer, and perhaps it might even have a better chance of being used globally than their own state back currency would be.

For those reasons perhaps they are starting to shift gears on bitcoin and crypto?

These are just guesses on my part as I don't really have a good explanation for why new addresses are spiking so much, do you?

If so, let me know in the comments section below.

Stay informed my friends.

-Doc

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

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China is a producer, not a consumer. They have money available to put into BTC. Westerners are broke, especially so-called crypto experts and shills.
We have a lot of them on steem, hive, and leofinance. Noisy but broke.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

Now you have my attention!

So tell me, do you think the value of Leo tokens, in Hive, will be up or down in a month?

Presumably up because you have 100k of them

My guess is it (LEO) will be higher. HIVE hasn't gone up at all apart from when it got listed on a bunch of exchanges a few months back and there is nothing coming in the near term that will likely change the current trajectory.

My guess is that Leo has just has a big spike, so in a month it will be lower than it is now.

And if tron corp are pushing the price of Hive down by selling millions, at some point soon they will run out.

So the combined effect of those two factors could mean that Hive is worth more relative to Leo in a month.

Right now if I had a lot of Leo I'd trade it for Hive. Note to self - check this call in a month!

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I think LEO will continue to climb as the ad revenue they generate each day gets funneled back into the token price. Plus there is so much LEO tied up in the liquidity pool on Uniswap that there isn't much out there for people to sell... For those reasons I fully expect LEO to continue to climb over the coming months. HIVE may be getting close to a bottom though, but I don't think that has anything to do with Tron Corp as I think they were out long ago.

I've made a note in my diary to check this in a month😉

I think Leo could go up longer term, because the development and marketing is impressive, but not in a month from now because it looks like it just pumped too hard

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But here is my initial response to the content on Leofinance - it is filled with posts by people going on about their Hive "investments" - but they have bugger all in their wallets and are now talking about selling their Hive. Meanwhile the real Hive investors (whales) are not saying peep.

And it is also filled with new users doing very low quality posts. High traffic is not that great if it's a rush of low quality posting. Neither observation fills me with confidence. Any thoughts?

Why does "low quality" matter? What matters is the traffic. Not everyone can write a great blog post, nor should they be required to in order to be part of the community. This is where HIVE/STEEM continues to fail time and time again. Instead of catering towards the masses, they cater towards an extremely small subset of a community. LeoFinace is going to be open to anyone interested in finance related topics with the intention of rewards being slanted towards better content.

Regarding the LEO price... at the current price LEO is worth $1.3 million. HIVE is currently worth $45 million and many would argue that is a very low price for HIVE. In order for LEO just to be worth half of what HIVE is worth right now today, it would need to still go up roughly 20x. So, yes LEO is up a bit in the last several weeks, but it basically started from ground zero. It has plenty of room to run still and I don't see it pulling back much at all around these levels. At $2, it's still only worth $10 million total... less than 1/3rd of what HIVE is worth right now.

As far as the short term dip you are talking about... There is the 300k LEO bounty for LP providers that is going to payout for 90 days which is going to keep much of the current supply for selling anything for the next 90 days or so, which is a major reason why there will be no dip with in the next month like you are calling for.

From a purely investment point you are probably right...

But If I was investing Hive purely for the investment side of things I'd probably just stick more into Bitcoin, Etherium, and Monero, and leave my remaining Hive liquid. I'm mainly here for the content.

So when I look at Leofinance and see it's mostly rubbish posts, I have zero incentive to buy Leo tokens - I'd rather put more $ into cryptos like Monero that I'm picking as long term investments.

If Leo does well won't that help raise the value of Hive anyway?

Lol sure, though by definition, if you are a consumer you must have capital to consume with. :)

That being said it is strange given China's stance on bitcoin in the past. Perhaps they are starting to realize it would benefit them to promote it and have it globally embed itself as a widely used settlement layer.