If history repeats, Bitcoin will peak in August of 2021

in LeoFinance4 months ago

Bitcoin likely to peak somewhere around August of next year?

Due to the block reward halving events, bitcoin very much moves in somewhat predictable cycles.

At least it has over the course of it's first decade of existence.

Looking back at the previous 2 cycles we can glean a few averages...

  • Bitcoin bottoms roughly 459 days prior to the halving
  • Bitcoin peaks roughly 446 days after the halving

*This past halving saw prices bottom 514 days prior to the halving


(Source: https://medium.com/@PanteraCapital/macro-impact-on-bitcoin-pantera-blockchain-letter-april-2020-1fdc792d4f33#7076)

Looking forward...

If we take that same data mentioned above and extrapolate it forward, we would see bitcoin peak in August of 2021.

What's more...

If we wanted to get really specific with things, we could expect to see the price of bitcoin trade around $115k by August of 2021 if it repeats the average performance seen in the previous other two halvings.

Keep in mind that we have only had 3 halvings total now so not a ton of data to go off of, but it's currently batting 1000% so it makes sense to pay attention to these patterns until they stop working.

Which means, until I see anything different, I fully expect to see bitcoin hit $100k around August of next year. :)

Stay informed my friends.



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Why do you say that?

At some price level, exchanges will start to have troubles when enough people want to cash out their Bitcoin as banks monitor large transfers... Even if some exchanges have maximum withdrawal limit, people still can sell their Bitcoins for FIAT and then on consecutive months withdraw as much as the exchange's monthly maximum withdrawal limit is...

I don't need an exchange. HODL wallet -> european crypto/fiat broker -> bank account.
This broker has a monthly withdrawal limit of €5million after KYC.

Even the crypto/fiat brokers need banks to credit the FIAT to user's bank account... A lot of crypto users don't trust brokers.

I don't think that will be a concern for some time...

At some point Bitcoin will be worth so much that when people sneeze, big chunk of value of USD will go poof and that makes value of Bitcoin against USD will go way past moon...

I was looking at BTC-EUR exchange rates on some exchanges and 1 Bitcoin was worth more in EUR than whole market cap of Bitcoin in USD. People don't trade that much BTC against EUR so the exchange rate doesn't normalize.

One quantum computing in place, all the patterns will change 😀

Possible. Though patterns are simply reflections of all market participants. Including the robotic ones.