It's not time to sell Bitcoin, yet...
There will come a time to take some profits on Bitcoin, but we aren't there yet
There is one indicator that has been pretty reliable in terms of predicting tops in the bitcoin market.
It accurately predicted the tops in 2011, both tops in 2013, and the top in 2017.
The only 'top' that it missed was the one back in July of 2019 where bitcoin topped out around $14k.
However, in terms of post halving bull market rally tops, it's been extremely accurate, and so far, the alarm bells are not sounding that we are there yet.
The indicator that I am referring to is the MVRV Z-Score.
Here's what it looks like in action:
(Source: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/mvrv-zscore/)
As you can see, the MVRV Z-Score has been an extremely reliable indicator in terms or predicting market tops.
How it works...
The MVRV Z-Score is obtained by taking bitcoin's market cap and subtracting it's realized cap and then dividing that number by the standard deviation of its market cap.
In layman's terms it can be defined/explained as follows:
(Source: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/mvrv-zscore/)
The important thing about this metric is what it tells us in terms of predicting a top.
Basically, looking at the chart above, anytime the MVRV Z-Score gets to the red zone, we are at or near the top.
It's accurately predicted most of the major tops in bitcoin going back almost a decade.
Once we get to the red zone it may be time to start locking in some profits, but we are still a ways from there based on the most recent MVRV Z-Score.
Stay informed my friends.
-Doc
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And when it does go in the red zone will you be doing a post telling everyone and announce when you have taken profits?
That will be of great interest!
I have sold most of mine already once it went over 40k and I don't care if it goes higher this run, I did very well.
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Sure I can do that. You were able to sell all your bitcoin holdings over $40k? Sounds like a pretty good move thus far...
Yes no problem at all, I put them into DAI at around 40.3k last night.
I bought them at prices ranging from 5.5 to 12.5, averaging at just under 10k
Planning to buy back when the price is sub 20k again
Best laid plans...
Sounds like a good plan..I'm a bit paralysed at the moment and don't know what to do!
I've been here before and know that this is the hard part - so I repeat the mantra "buy low, sell high" and remember that "this time is different" has been repeatedly said EVERY time since the actual first time in 1637 - tulip mania!
Personally I don't think you will see bitcoin under $20k again for a very long time, if ever.
That is what our bet is all about - If I'm right (big IF I know) I think there will be a temporary crash of all cryptos around February.
It's certainly possible, though a fast temporary crash is probably more likely than 2 consecutive quarters of terrible GDP numbers. :)
Shit is hitting fans right now, and I have seen what I was waiting to see - how it affects Bitcoin. Etherium and Litecoin (I'm now 99% out of all three) - and how it affects privacy coins (Monero, Dash, and ZCash are taking off, so I'm doing well there now)
So far so good!
The one I can't read with deep state input is Cardano - flying totally blind there...
What is the price at the bottom of the red zone? I can't read it off that graph. 😂
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It's not a price predictor, in fact I am not sure what that scale represents exactly. Based on the inputs, the price point at which bitcoin enters the redzone can change. If you click on the link under the image you can check to see what the MVRV Z-Score is on a daily basis to keep track of when it enters the red zone though.
Ah. I see. Thanks. 😊
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2019 was exception of the rule... Everyone thought Bitcoin was going to reach new all-time high, but it underperformed... It might be because so many new altcoins were launched in 2019 and developers were trying to cash out premines to get enough funds to keep their coins running... Basically it scared a lot of potential sellers of Bitcoin and a lot of altcoins failed during few first months...
I don't think it's the case to sell Bitcoin now, but still I expect its "dominance" to drop by up to 45%
It would be unusual to see price simply continue in parabolic fashion without a decent correction soon, before $100k. And then continue upward.
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Agreed. There will be several corrections along the way, possibly a couple large ones. We saw 8 corrections of 24% or more in 2017. I just don't think we will see as many large ones this time around.
Curious. I checked your feed this morning and didn't see this post. Voted both on either side (because this one wasn't there to vote). Weird.
Not the time to sell Bitcoin? I don't think it will ever be the time to sell Bitcoin. hehehe
That is weird. HIVE does weird things from time to time I have noticed.