Now that Bitcoin broke through $40k, where does it go next?

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Bitcoin is primed and ready for another major move higher

Bitcoin has regained its positive momentum after a brief consolidation period.

Now that we have broken out of that consolidation period, where do we go next?

In order to figure that out, I think the best indicator of the future is what happened in the past.

If you have followed my blog in the past you have likely seen this same chart:

image.png

(Source: https://hive.blog/hive-167922/@jrcornel/on-average-bitcoin-surges-153-after-correcting-by-30-during-the-last-bull-market)

Considering how similar these 4 year cycles and patterns seem to play out, I think this is definitely worth paying attention to.

It shows how long every correction was back in 2017, how deep it went, and ultimately how high it went before the next correction.

Extremely valuable information if you ask me!

So, what price should we be looking at?

In the past, every time bitcoin pulled back by roughly 30%, it eventually surged by more than 100% from the lows during that pullback.

The smallest gain was 106% and the largest was 238%.

The average gain of all 6 corrections was 153% from the lows during the pullbacks:

https://hive.blog/hive-167922/@jrcornel/on-average-bitcoin-surges-153-after-correcting-by-30-during-the-last-bull-market

If we take those same averages and apply it this time around, with a low of $29k we would be looking at a price of $72.5k before the next major correction based on the average.

The lowest return would yield a price of $58k, while the highest would yield a price of $98k before the next correction.

Considering where we are in the cycle (after the 1st or 2nd major correction on that chart above), I'd say the most likely resolution will be in the range of that 106% surge.

Taking that into account, the projected move for this current breakout is roughly that $58k number.

Given that it's not much of a psychologically important number, I would not be shocked to see it peak near a whole number, something like that $60k number looks pretty good to me.

Hopefully this helps gives some context of where we are likely headed from here with history as our guide.

Stay informed my friends.

-Doc

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta



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12 comments
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If it holds above 40k i might just have to eat humble pie and buy it back for what i sold it for and you can say you told me so!

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I suspect that day won't be far from now...

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Rut roh...

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Holy cow I just made a lot of dosh overnight

But not on btc... that was a bad call it seems

Nevermind, that is trading, win some, lose some!

You were right about btc this month

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Thank you. Yea I never faulted your selling of btc at $40k. My only point was that getting back in at least some at $30k made a ton of sense...

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Missed this reply!

Looking back now, it certainly would have done - but I still have holdings in 10 alt coins that seem to be taking turns to take off - Dash today - I just hit 200% gains on that one - but I can't pick what will happen each week, this is all quite mad.

My portfolio choices have been good overall,and right now, today, I wouldn't buy Bitcoin at 47k. In fact the only coin I might buy right now is Hive, but I have all of that I want to be holding - if it goes up, 200k should be enough.

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parabolic

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Yep, we are getting closer and closer to the parabolic portion of the move...

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I really wish all of us, that Bitcoin history will repeat itself. As always great analysis Doc. !BEER and !WINE to celebrate 🍾

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Thank you, and thanks for the beer!

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