Uniswap, User Growth Targets and the Future Price of LEO
Since the announcement of the new LeoFinance interface, our listing on Uniswap and our roadmap for the rest of 2020, LEO has been performing extremely well. A lot of people are trying to make price predictions and are looking at LEO from both a fundamental and technical perspective.
Recently, @nealmcspadden (2nd from the bottom in the featured img) posted 2 price prediction videos.
In the first, he made the case for LEO going to $2.
In the second, he made the case for LEO going to $37.
While we can't predict price - since we're operating in an open marketplace - we can extrapolate growth from the current daily active users along with other key metrics like the staking rate.
The interesting thing about Neal's two price predictions is that the result is actually based on the same # of users: ~4,000 daily users of the interface.
The reason why the user # remains the same even though the price targets are incredibly different is because of the staking rate/utility of the LEO token. The $2 price target and 4,000 users is calculated under the assumption that all users would sell 100% of the LEO they earned and none of them would power up.
The $37 price target extrapolates the current rate of user staking and then overlays it with the expected ad revenue.. leading to the same ~4,000 daily active users but the key difference that not all of those users will sell all the LEO they earn. Some will stake (assuming the current staking rates continue) which will lead to a tighter supply hitting the open market and thus, a higher price per LEO.
Again, nobody can predict the future price, but seeing these user growth targets is extremely valuable in my opinion. It helps us understand that the key to building our project lies in growing our hardcore userbase - daily active authors and curators using https://leofinance.io.
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▶️ 3Speak
Yeah basically more people using Leo the more the reward spreads and 100 Leo per post might no longer be obtainable. As for the $2 worse case scenario everyone won't really sell everything they earn I guess.
Posted Using LeoFinance
Surely, it's not possible that everyone sells off their LEO. That worst case scenario would never play out even though we reach the 4k userbase.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I was thinking the same too, it just can't be possible
Yep. Any # of people staking will allow us to be above that worst case scenario - also keep in mind that the incentive to stake (in terms of $ value of curation rewards) increases as the price does. It's fun to think about :)
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
If LEO has 250 MAU and thats around 1% of HIVE what would it be if HIVE had the same amount of MAU as STEEM did during the 2017 bull run, during that time it was around 200k users and the price of steem was $8 now imagine that with second layer cross trading and all that ad view pressure, leodex fees the multipliers are mind-boggling.
Yeah it's pretty crazy to think about. People tend to underestimate the exponential impact that new users have on a small and layered ecosystem like LeoFinance.
Neal's videos contrast this perfectly - in his first, he explains the $2 target by using the scenario that everyone just cashes out and the only buy is ad revenue.
The same # of users quickly brings about the $37 target because of the layered impact of simply having the same staking rate that we have now.
The layers just continue to pile up. I'm excited to look back on this moment 12 months from now and see how it played out. I think we'll all be smiling :)
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Those predictions are awesome and it would be as hodling BTC if LEO reached $37. At $2, it sounds like hodling ETH. At this point, I'm more concerned with the strategy to bringing these 4,000 users to the LeoFinance community. I made my first suggestion in this post.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Haha yeah, it's definitely a fun thing to keep in mind as we work hard to buidl the community and onboard new users. I'm excited to see this all play out over the coming years.
We're just at the beginning!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
What is the current user base of LeoFinance?
Posted using Dapplr
One way is via https://hivedapps.com. The above shows the monthly active users currently. We've seen a nice spike since the LEO price has increased and the incentive to post is higher along with general awareness about our project spreading on Hive.
Neal's target - ~4000 users - is based on 4,000 daily active users. Hivedapps.com counts a user as someone who's made a post or comment from the interface.. so the numbers on there are slightly lower than our actual userbase (since Neal and I consider users to be people who either post or curator - which means someone who's just voting wouldn't show up).
Over time, I think we'll add better tracking analytics for our real core userbase. I put it at about 150 DAUs... which is tiny if you think about it. Getting from 150 to 4,000 will be a challenge, but the growth won't be a linear curve :)
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
@khaleelkazi, thank you for the detailed answer. 400 DAUs seems to be a big challenge, but it is probably achievable! Let's do it!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
do we have any user numbers? Just to know when to expect that 2 - 37 dollar price?
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
https://hivedapps.com will show you the daily / monthly users who post/comment from our interface.
Though I consider curators to be users of the interface as well. Getting to that 4k DAUs target is based on 4k authors/curators. Not just people posting/commenting.
Another consideration are just general readers/people who happen to click an article from google or Twiter or elsewhere.
You can track those numbers here:
https://simpleanalytics.com/leofinance.io
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I’ve always been a part of the community but it’s about time to jump in with both feet.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
:) happy to have more core users jumping fully into the community. I think there's a lot of untapped potential here and we're just getting started.
Can't wait to show everyone what we're cooking up for the rest of 2020!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
https://twitter.com/FinanceLeo/status/1310442432262270976