To Buy or Not to Buy
Bitcoin has been trading in this range of $9k-$9,500 for a long time now. As per usual, we're seeing a lot of analyses of the BTC price in the short-medium term that call for either a major bearish scenario or major bullish scenario.
The 3 main ideas I see out there right now are:
- A breakdown from $8900 with a pullback to follow that will bring us down to around $7500
- A run-up in price where we blast through $10,500 resistance and see prices hit $12-$13k
- A major bearish scenario where we see BTC drop down to $4k
If I were to make a personal bet, I would say that I expect the liklihood of these scenarios as:
- 30% chance
- 60% chance
- 10% chance
Obviously, I'm pulling these numbers out of thin air. From a personal belief standpoint as I take in all that I've read and the conversations I've had, I think it's most likely that we see a breakout from here to something above $10,500.
If that doesn't happen, then the next most likely scenario is that we'll see BTC drop down to $7500 - which is a scenario that we've talked about and analyzed on the LEO Roundtable podcast episodes. In this scenario, I'd be loading up my BTC bags and getting ready for the eventual rally to $10,5.
The last scenario is the least likely. I think many traders felt the pain back in mid-march when we saw one of the largest intraday drops ever in BTC history. Many call this the Covid dip.
I don't see this happening to be completely honest. Anything's possible which is why I gave it a small chance in my rough guesstimations, but if you were to hold a gun to my head, I'd say #3 is called upon by the "doomsday" thinkers.
Major Support at $8k?
With the stock market rallying to new highs and economies across the globe starting to open back up after Covid, I feel that we've seen the worst of Bitcoin in terms of major drops before the "post-halving rally" that should ensue months after the event back in May.
This heatmap is interesting. We can see some major support for BTC buyers at $8k. I'm among them as I've got orders in to buy BTC if it starts dropping below $8,800 all the way down to that doomsday $4k number.
Does Any of This Matter?
I'm not a trader. I'm not a short-term arbitrager. I like to make profits as much as the next guy/gal, but I don't like to sit around and worry to hell about the positions I take.
As I've said in my recent posts about my investment portfolio, I like to take long-term bets on technologies and innovative companies that have massive potential over the coming years.
At the end of the day, I want as much BTC as I can get. Not for the rally to $10,500 but for the next decade as a financial revolution takes place and we see BTC adoption more widespread amongst individuals and institutions.
My mantra in these uncertain times when I have trouble deciding where to buy is this: "10 years from now, the only thing you'll regret is not owning more Bitcoin"
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Yeah, a dip wooooould be nice! I am looking to get into trading cryptos. Can you recommend any good teachers? Thanks for all you do 💕🎶🎁🌲
I am actually rooting for a dip to 7500 just to load up on more. We'll see if we get to that point :)
As for learning about trading crypto, I learn a lot during our LEO roundtable podcasts from @rollandthomas, @scaredycatguide and @nealmcspadden who are all well-versed in all things trading/finance. So I'll selfishly point you to a clip from our last episode where we talked Bitcoin: https://leofinance.io/hive-167922/@khaleelkazi/gxyhwgon
Other people I like to pay attention to are mostly on Twitter/YouTube. The key there/with any trading-related material (and I can't stress this enough) is to take everything with a grain of salt. I hate seeing people get tripped up and buy/sell things based on some indicator that they heard about.
This post is actually a good example of how I toy with different ideas but fall back on the fundamentals when making my buying decisions. I like to consume the content/ideas of traders and the technical indicators that they talk about, but I prefer to weigh everything against my long-term outlook.
Hope that helps!
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Very helpful! Thank-you 😊
:)
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I watch Youtube channel called "The Moon", among others. Guy called Carl, is very educational in BTC Technical analysis and news. I learn a lot from him.
A dip in price would be encouraging to people who wants to buy more and many people as well might decide to panic sell. Irrespective, a dip in price can you know make it seem a little scary seeing BTC hasn't broken off 10k in a while now
I agree, it will be interesting to see the psychology of the market play out during a dip or even during a run in price. Personally, I'll keep BTFDs and taking small profits as we climb back toward ATHs
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You should check up on steem them. Massive potential there!!!!
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lol I agree!
massive potential to lose 100% of it's value xD
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It doesnt matter, actually, the cheaper the better.
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I'm with you. Just out here trying to get more ;)
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Definitely looking more like a bear scenario. I'd be careful. Buying rage between 4k-6k :)
Yeah I'm treading lightly at these prices. Really just looking for the opportunity to buy again below $8k. We'll see how it plays out!
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I think this is one of the most undecided games in the world, haha!
haha if there is anything decided about crypto it is how undecided everything is :)
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Yes the support of the 100 and 200 EMA on the daily chart around $8100 may act as a floor if price were to rollover and dip downward. If it returns to anything below $7k I will be keen to load up again for the coming bull run.
Interesting take. If it gets down there, I'm gonna be loading and loading and loading my bags before we see the halving rally over the next 1-2 years.
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if a bitcoin fall scenario were presented it would not be the end of the world it would be one of the last opportunities to be able to acquire this currency cheaply if the next fundamentals are analyzed in a period of 4 years we see that there is a strange future for the fiat world and the central banks are already working on surviving with a new digital system that I imagine will be the center of the "new" system or as we all know about the financial reset.
Bitcoin represents more than a value in dollars or euros, I think it is the transformation and change that the masses expected; It is more linked to world protests than we all imagine.