More Numbers Out Of The US - Not A Strong Economy
We got the weekly mortgage applications along with the monthly retail sales. Both are not suggesting a strong economy.
In this video I delve into what came out and how this is affecting things.
▶️ 3Speak
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americans are going to keep on partying man.
the economy must show improvement and the purchase of real estate can be a good parameter to know to a large extent if the recovery is true or if it is not
Not sure the real estate market is the parameter to go by.
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As far as consumer good, I have been seeing that too out for a while now. I mean how much stuff do we need? Did they think that the momentum of was going to continue? At this point small businesses don’t have much of a chance because we don’t have to connections and buying power to get items at a cost that is sustainable. I have been seeing this with the Hivelist store.
If we are a 70% consumer market, that is bound to balance itself out through supply and demand over time. No way that imbalance can stand for much longer. Especially the way things are going. With the staples of life going through the roof, who can afford a bunch of garbage?
No and that is why we see the buildup in inventories. As people spend more on the basics, they have less for the other stuff.
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I’m certainly skeptical of the “things are great” bullshit coming out of the WH to try to protect some of the criminals running for re-election.
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Imo, the American consumer is screaming in pain rn. The banks aren't going to lend, so there's going to be another major credit squeeze. It'll hit leverage in the stock market first, as people sell to cover margin and pay down debt (if not just pay it all off in their entirety)
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It is so a strong economy 🥸
Everything is great. We will protect you all by printing 💴. Don’t worry folks the economy is great 🥸 - The Fed
Summary:
In this video, the speaker discusses recent economic indicators in the United States, focusing on mortgage applications and retail sales. He explains that the mortgage applications are decreasing week over week, indicating potential weakness in the real estate market. He also mentions that retail sales are flat or slightly increasing, which could lead to challenges for businesses and the economy at large. The speaker expresses concerns about the health of the economy and predicts that the second half of the year may be worse than the first half.
Detailed Article:
The video begins with the speaker, Task, highlighting recent economic news from the United States. He specifically delves into two key metrics - mortgage applications and retail sales - to analyze the state of the economy. Task notes that mortgage applications have decreased by 2.3% week over week, signifying a downturn in the real estate market. This decline is part of a trend he has been observing for the past 14 months, indicating an ongoing issue within the industry. Task explains that a decrease in mortgage applications can be concerning as it is typically one of the initial steps in the home buying process for individuals.
Moreover, Task breaks down the different aspects of the mortgage market, distinguishing between home purchases and refinancing. He points out that with rising interest rates, the refinance market is likely to suffer unless individuals urgently need to access their home equity. The decrease in both purchases and refis contributes to a growing inventory in the real estate market, leading to longer days on the market and overall weakening of the sector.
Shifting focus to retail sales, Task mentions that month-over-month retail sales show little to no growth, with marginal increases excluding auto and gas sales. He emphasizes that stagnant retail sales could adversely impact businesses, with potential consequences on profit margins and employment. Task elaborates on specific percentages related to different sale categories, highlighting the challenges faced by the automobile market, which has been struggling significantly.
Task connects the implications of sluggish retail sales to broader economic concerns, highlighting the importance of consumer spending in driving the U.S. economy, which is largely consumption-driven. He expresses worries about potential repercussions if consumers continue to tighten their spending. Task predicts that the second half of the year may be worse than the first, which has already shown signs of recession based on White House reports.
In conclusion, Task raises skepticism about the state of the U.S. economy, contrasting his views with official statements from the White House and the Federal Reserve. Despite the contrasting narratives, he remains cautious about the economic outlook and urges viewers to stay informed.