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RE: Bitcoin will go to $1M / Why other cryptos won't (part 1)

in LeoFinance4 months ago

The thing is that it doesnt take $21T for the market cap to jump to $21T. Hence, there is a lot more upside than people imagine.

That said, I think the problem with this analysis is that Bitcoin biggest strength, its store of value, is not as important in a rapidly deflationary world. Whether one calls something new technology or not, there is no doubt the impact of technology on things. Anyone who pays attention is seeing the onset of this being laid as industries such as healthcare, education, and construction about to get blasted like they never saw before. Disruption is going to take place on the scale of hundreds of trillions of dollars.

Any analysis that overlooks this major point is bound to be off.

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While I agree that if you just took $21T and bought BTC the price would be much higher than $1M, in reality there will be a LOT of selling on the way up as well. There's $50B that has changed hands in the last 24 hrs and that number is fairly consistent, some days much higher. In 30 days that's $1.5T in volume. Many of these coins will end up trading many multiples of times at different prices along the way. But a lot of it will be the same dollars as well, flowing into and out of the market. Either way, it's going to take many trillions of dollars to get Bitcoin to a million.

As for the deflationary aspect, you are, of course, correct about that. The real question becomes how soon and how dramatically that affects those industries. Will 3D printing take a 50% market share in the next 5 years? 5%? 25%? There's no way of knowing right now. How fast can they make the printers and how fast can people be trained up to use them? What kind of structural problems might they face 5 years after being built/printed? How will they be insured? Who will insure them? While I agree the tech is coming, there will be many, many questions and problems that need to get answered and solved before it becomes mainstream. I would think the main focus for the foreseeable future will be on proving the quality and durability of the builds. They'll probably stick with the low-income housing and government contracts for at least the next few years before branching out into the regular residential market. I could be wrong but, as you say, it could be such a huge disruption I have a hard time believing the powers-that-be are going to allow it to just decimate an entire industry overnight.

Lastly, while I get a deflationary environment won't erode the purchasing power of cash by the same degree, you still can't argue with an asset increasing by 100% year over year vs any other investment vehicle out there. There will still be a huge demand to own bitcoin. Just my thoughts....

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Lastly, while I get a deflationary environment won't erode the purchasing power of cash by the same degree, you still can't argue with an asset increasing by 100% year over year vs any other investment vehicle out there. There will still be a huge demand to own bitcoin.

I agree with you there will be huge demand for Bitcoin. But you just changed the idea of the what drives adoption of Bitcoin. Now we are discussing the speculative nature of the token which I agree is going to be there. In fact, that is why these companies are going piling in. They are not using it as a hedge since these companies have dozens of ways to do that. They are buying it because the price is going up.

Of course, will Bitcoin be the only one to do that? I have a feeling we are going to see many tokens starting to put together runs like Bitcoin has.

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Of course, will Bitcoin be the only one to do that? I have a feeling we are going to see many tokens starting to put together runs like Bitcoin has.

This is where I think I disagree with you. My post tomorrow will give my reasons why. While I think there will eventually be tokens that can make these major runs. I think there need to be some pretty major developments in the space for it to happen. I can't remember where I wrote it (possibly tomorrow's piece) but, personally, I don't think the coin to rival Bitcoin has been created yet. I'm not saying it can't or won't happen, I just don't think it's happened yet. It's all about "value", which is what I talk about in part 2....

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