Crypto Analysis | ETH, BTC, HIVE, RUNE - A Look Back at (Un)Successful Predictions!

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Good day Hiveians!

Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!

 

I wanted to briefly recap on my scenarios I made for a bunch of coins recently

If you have followed my blog you might have noticed that I highlight both the successful and unsuccessful predictions that I make. While crypto analysis is a far cry from an exact science, I have proven at least to myself that somewhat successful predictions are possible. Knowledge and experience are the helpful guide in this regard and it also requires humility to acknowledge the limitations of what one can do.

"Success" in this kind of analysis is often not clearly defined. Many people claim to be successful when rightfully predicting a higher price. But is that really so hard to do? In a bull market, for example, one can easily proclaim that bitcoin will reach a new ATH or even call out targets such as 50k of 100k. But I think being successful means to "understand" the movement of price actions. While I would never claim to know how this works completely and no one should do so (the markets are too complex to ever reach such an understanding), there are many simple techniques that are very good for predicting future price targets with a greater probability than chance. Predictions therefore need to both address the vertical (price movement) and horizontal (time) dimensions and lay out probabilistic scenarios for price actions to be considered successful.

Here on this blog I have often referred to fractal or pattern analysis as it is obvious when one looks at charts for an extended period of time that there are patterns that do repeat. Would anyone deny the halving characteristic of bitcoin? I don't think so. Some people also claim that technical analysis does not work due to apophenia. However, if one applies these techniques one quickly realizes this not to be the case (although I wouldn't dismiss that there is this tendency and one can see patterns where there are none).

So without further ado, let's look at what I said over the last months and see what actually happened.

HIVE

I made this chart over a month ago when Hive was at 23 cents. Hive's pattern is very clear and therefore it was possible to make this prediction. The resistance at 70-80 cents was easy to forecast due to the trend line coming from back in August 2020.

Prediction

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Actuality

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Again, saying that Hive would moon is only part of a successful prediction. Predicting accurate price targets and consolidation ranges are much better.

Rune

Some weeks ago I made this prediction. It is both successful in prediction 10$ and unsuccessful in not predicting the drop to 4$ before. In the post, however, I made other scenarios for price to first fall and then climb. So this is somewhat of a neutral development. Currently, I think that Rune is going to continue to climb to 15 and 20$ in the next weeks before seeing a larger (30-50%) correction. It should continue its 1-2-3 pattern.

Prediction

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Actuality
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ETH

I successfully predicted the basic pattern of ETH which catapulted it to higher highs some months ago. At that time the price was under 600$ and I predicted the price to double in a short time span. This played out just like predicted. However, price stayed at that range longer than I expected and price just recently is moving to 2k and beyond. I would have thought this to play out much earlier. Nevertheless, I would call this a success as well.

Prediction
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Actuality
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BTC

For bitcoin I made many predictions; some very successful and some failed. One of the best predictions was from some months ago which predicted price to move to 40k when bitcoin was at 20k. I was absolutely sure that this would happen due to the "orange" channel I successfully charted. This predicted other price movements as well. A scenario that failed was from some weeks ago in which I argued that bitcoin would correct back to about 20k when in fact we reached new ATHs. However, I strongly believe this was falsified by Elon Musk's decision to acquire BTC which "broke" the market and sent price skyrocketing. More recently, I argued for a "mini" correction which predicted the current correction of BTC.

Conclusion: it is difficult to predict the market. While some might say it is impossible, I think I have shown that it is quite possible to lay out some scenarios which are quite successful in predicting a trend.

Personally I think that the current bull cycle could last until October - December of this year (perhaps some months longer). Bitcoin should reach an ATH between 300-500k based on its current movement. I am 90% sure about this price target. But we'll see soon enough!

 


As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

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