Crypto Analysis | Long Term Bitcoin Ideas
Good day Steemians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
So we all know that the crypto market is very volatile-which is especially true on a short term time scale. Let's have a look at what could happen in a more long term perspective.
Before I start, however, I have to acknowledge someone who gets a lot of hate here (which I kind of agree with actually, mainly becuase of low quality self voting posts), but he has been getting it right lately most of the time. Haejin posts a lot of his analysis on his youtube channel and the Bitcoin videos are definitely worth checking out.
I'd recommend giving his latest video a watch:
With that said, let's have a look at what is happening: Everyone has been talking about the bitcoin halving and how we are going to moon. But if we look at the past it becomes rather clear that prices did not go up immediately after the event.
In fact in the last halving we saw a dramatic correction. Of course this was just a blip in the long term bull market, but still: the price went down, not up (about 40%).
If we connect the tops and downs in this weekly chart, we get a triangle which I believe is very important for a long term analysis. This triangle has boxed in the price so to speak and when you look the right convergence point it ends in early 2023. That's a big triangle... and a lot of room for the price to move in. From past analyses I have noticed that the price in these triangles never reaches that end point, however. Instead, the price breaks up or down well before that date. I have marked that date at the end of this year (the vertical line to the right).
For some reason the time of December/January has always been important for the price movement. And this will probably be the case again at the end of this year. I expect the price to sustainably reach higher levels from that point on wards. But until then the price is likely going to continue falling (not linearly of course).
A reason for this can be found in the fractal of Dec/January of 2018/19. If you look closely, there is a similar triangle there which has predictive powers for the current movement. If this holds true, then expect prices of anywhere between 4ks and 5ks fairly soon. This price level, I believe is going to be the bottom and presents a great buying opportunity.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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I expect a few weeks decline on BTC price, then a steady rise upwards...
what makes you so sure?
I think, bitcoin will not decline much farther
why?
Wow! This is quite stressful for small holders! But looking at the long term, I feel a bit more hopeful! The zigzag pattern will cause many heart breaks!
don't panic :)
Thank you very much! I have something I recently noticed to share with you! I don’t know if I should share with you my doubt. Of course, I may have misunderstood the matter. But with your experience I think you could decide for yourself.
This is not easy to do as there may be repercussions, so I hope you could take your time and not be too hasty about this. Do you think there is something odd about one actor with three roles. My trust had been destroyed altogether and I felt very stupid! Could hardly believe this! Follow the money from hangin to bigsambucca to kohsamui99. I have stopped commenting on these blogs. This is very sad and I feel very stupid. Give it some time, don’t be too hasty about your conclusion. Of course, I could be mistaken about the originality of work, in that case please pardon me for wasting your time.
hmm well there are actually quite a lot of people who have multiple accounts. So it wouldn't be too surprising if it is one person who controlls them. But thanks for pointing it out, I'll take it into consideration for the LTC contests.