With the recent bullish action in the price of Hive, a lot of us have been fantasizing about that magic number of where everything changes. Maybe at 3 dollar hive you can pay off your student debt? Maybe at 7 dollar Hive you'll be able to put a down payment on a house? Maybe that number is 100 and you'll be sporting a Hive Lambo and more!

As an investor with almost 20 years experience one mistake I've seen people make over and over again is base their profit taking strategy on magic numbers! Or I should say numbers that they get an emotional attachment to; often based on delusions of grandeur! Also known as greed.

When it comes to trading and investing I do my best to take my emotions out. Easier said than done at times. However let's have a closer look at where the price of HIVE could potentially go. But first HIVE has a lot going for it, and here is a link to yesterday's article talking about why Hive is Blowing the Price of Steem out of the water."

At time of writing Hive is sitting solidly above $2 after a massive two day rally pushing the price just shy of $3. The market cap at one point cracked one billion dollars. Hive was trending on most exchanges as biggest percent gainer while getting on the radar of crypto investors around the world. The rank jumped from over 200 to the low 100's.

So that is where we are at the moment. Now to get an idea of where we may be going lets focus in on market cap and rank. At a billion dollars the price of Hive is about $2.75. I believe it's safe to assume a two billion dollar market cap would put the price at $5.50 and a ranking at around #80 by largest market cap.

What it comes down to is do you think Hive, the community, the blockchain, all the projects, ...... bring more value than currently higher ranked cryptos? These are the things to ask yourself before exiting stage left. Let's go a step further.

Let's double that again. The price is now 11 dollars with a four billion dollar market cap. In today's market that would put Hive in the top 50. Do you think Hive belongs there? Lets go with your dream price of 100 dollars with a 37 billion dollar market cap. That put's Hive in the top 10! Do you think Hive has what it takes to get there?

I'm not a crypto expert and a clock is right twice a day! But I did want to share some insights on how we may want to look at the value of the Hive blockchain/network compared to the value and market cap of cryptos that are currently higher ranked.

Personally I believe Hive offers more value than at least half the 120 other cryptos that are currently ahead in market cap. So if we go with that hive is ranked #60 with a current market cap of about 3.4 billion dollars and price of about ten dollars.

I really have no idea what the true value of Hive is or any other crypto. But I do know that when markets rise and fall they often over shoot their target and in volatile markets like these, they can over shoot by a lot. So even if Hive's true value is ten dollars. How long will it take to get there and how far will it over shoot?

I would say it's gonna flow with the bigger crypto bullmarket with Bitcoin in lead position. I hear talks of major tops in the first quarter of next year. But we'll see. It wouldn't surprise me seeing the price over shoot fair value by as much as 100%, putting our final price target around 20 dollars.

So for me a traditional investor, not a crypto expert this is how I analyze where we are and where we may be heading, then make decisions accordingly. It also give me some sort of perspective, a ballpark expectation, rather than just get carried away with my Lambo fantasies!

Please leave your comments below and let us know where you think the price may be heading.

From the Gulf of Thailand

-Dan "World Travel Pro"