HIVE is just as doomed as STEEM was ?

First and foremost, pulling off a hard fork in 2-3 days is amazing, I would put my bottom dollar that this hard fork was long in the works before it was announced. I think the hard fork would have happened with are without the support of the community. The services that have been swapped over so far is also impressive with many project operators acting fast and getting on the ball to either make the move to HIVE are make it so their users have the option of both chains. With the speed at which everything happened, it's shocking to think nothing major went wrong so I thank everyone that has been involved and helped, this is the true work of a community with vision and goals.

HIVE is already listed on exchanges, its price is beating STEEM making it the first hard forked token to ever do that, crypto first and as STEEM continues to be powered down, the price of HIVE is expected to keep pumping for another hmmm, 12 weeks I guess and then it should stabilize. I look forward to the future but then I am reminded of the past and think to myself, will HIVE make it? I mean will it ever have more than 100,000 active daily users which is a very small slice of the social pie? Will HIVE succeed were STEEMit failed? No, it will not because essentially nothing has changed. If anything, we are in a worse situation then we were 60 days ago. I would love to eat these words someday but being on lockdown gives time to reflect and the best way to predict the future and make judgements is by looking at the past. I know SMT's are HMT's are coming but they've been coming for years and who says, they will make any difference? Media tokens might be great for us as users but well they entice dev's from other blockchains?

- It's too complicated for the average Joe
I have tried to explain STEEM to so many people but sadly by the time i get to my 3rd sentence, most are just nodding along not understanding a word. Having your username as your wallet address is genius, i have never lost any STEEM/HIVE are SE tokens for this reason alone. But the rest is too confusing, HIVE?, HBD?, HP? upvoting? upvoting percentages? delegations? rewards pool? witnesses? auto bots? curation? private keys? 4 of them? public and private? 8 of them? money locked up for 13 weeks? front-ends?. Steemit launched to compete with Reddit but Reddit is much better and they should not be comparable in terms of ease of use. I have just right now opened a Reddit account and I'm already joined up to a few crypto and silver stacking subreddits. All within 5 minutes. The homepage looks fresh and content filters are great and search results are displayed in a useable way.
HIVE would need to make it easier for the average joe to sign up and get started. I have no idea how but im starting to think mixing payments/rewards is just a model that looks good on paper and sounds good but essentially doesn't work. The content is never organic and it's produced for a reward.

- Content is shit and unappealing
Let's face it, the content is sorta shit. Here's an exercise to try out. After you have not been online for a few hours, visit the hive.blog homepage and time yourself for how long you stay on the homepage. I bet it's not a long time and probably under 1 minute because there is nothing there. Now think about it if you were a new user seeing this for the first time. The interface looks like a free template and the top 20 posts are about HIVE updates. I understand HIVE is a new blockchain but if you bounce over to steemit which has been running for 4 years, you'll notice that the top 20 posts are about STEEM. It's kinda dry content. If you hung around for a few days, you would notice that post titles and thumbnail pictures change but the content and the people posting them are pretty much always the same.

Where's all the great content of HIVE? It's all buried never to be seen. People spend hours researching, writing and producing pictures for a post that might collect a few cents in upvotes while someone else can drop a meme and get $100+ because they are part of a jerk circle. It's just a bad set up, set up to fail.

We know greed will always win so people that are posting on both chains are just copy/pasting from one chain to the other. This post you are reading now is written because i wonna write it, I'm in the mood for writing but after i upload this post, i will do a post for @spinvest but that post will be wrote to purely to collect upvotes. It'll not be a shit post but my motives to produce content are different. I am also aware that this post is about HIVE and i am contradicting myself but then again, this post will not make it to the front page so no worries. haha

- Not offering live chat/DM's is retarded
This is a no brainer. I spend much more time on discord then i do hive.blog because it's better for interacting with people, much better. I do not think I'm alone with this. Surely adding live chat, group chats and DM's to hive.blog would be a better use case for HIVE than blogging. Communities are a failure, big disappointment and not being used. Add a discord like service to hive.blog and watch user login times increase and bandwidth usage explode. I know there is a live chat option but nobody use's it, i think i tried 2-3 times but never got answered back. I don't understand why this has not been done yet are even briefly talked about.

- Money is locked up for 13 weeks
This one is simple. Its not appealing at all you lock money up knowing you can't access it all for 13 weeks are 13 weeks and 5 days if you are delegating it. the 13 weeks power down is a double-edged sword and also STEEM/HIVE's saving grace, without this rule how many more would have cashed out and never returned? Every time i hit a brick wall and throw the head up, the 13-week power down keeps me here. I think a lot of people can relate to that and we all share the same pain. Hive could go to $100 and stay there for 6 days before returning to 20 cents are whatever it is today and how much better off would you be? Not very much because the vast percentage of your HIVE are probably powered up. Bull runs last for weeks and powering down takes months, enough said.

-Rewards pool payments are wrong
Those with the biggest HIVE balances can claim bigger slices of the rewards pool and use there slice for upvoting, getting posts noticed and witness voting. The biggest HIVE accounts will also have a following of hanger ons. These hanger ons will auto upvote the whale's content and basically follow them around comments and posts agreeing with everything they say. Whales collect auto upvotes from mostly non-active users that set up and never cancelled. The current set up sounds good, each person can pick who they can upvote, sounds nice and fair but it's not. Not even close.

Possible solutions? Change the whole fucking thing, scrap the old way and make it about content. Instead of the rewards pool being given to users to decide how to spread it around through upvotes and the like, why not have an algorithm do it? You can't get any fairer than that. Get rid of silly 7-day payouts and voting weights and give just everyone an even vote. You'd still get the same 10 upvotes per day, you could still split it into x20 50% upvotes are whatever but instead of your upvote value being dependent on your HP balance, it's 1. 1 equals a 100% upvote. Everyone can vote a maximum of 10 a day if they use x10 100% upvotes. Evens the playing field out and not one person upvote would be worth more are less than anyone else's.

On post payout, the algorithm would work out payment amount based on data. Open up all users content to receiving payments from upvotes instead of whatever has been produced within the past 7 days. Post payouts could be calculated by how many votes the post received, how many comments, how many you replied back to, the word count of the post, the grammar, if bad language is used are not, do your pictures source from google and possibly 100 other things but you get the idea and i think this would fix the problem of shit content and the same people dominating the home page, take the control away from the users and give it to a non-biased piece of code. HIVE would perform much better long term.

A well-written 50-word post with a google picture are a 2000 word copy/pasted post would perform very poorly. But an ok wrote post with 2000 words and 3-4 original pictures would do much better and be given more exposure. People looking to earn would be forced to produce better content and using thier upvotes would not be a business discussion.

My 2 cents anyway.

How to make money from a passive income from a "blogging" platfrom

I can take $1000 and buy 5000 HIVE, then set up say 10 accounts connected to a bot that will auto-post random content from each account once a day while all other 9 accounts leave upvotes and drop a random comment that they also upvote. After 6 months, i might have $2-3000 worth of HIVE but most likely more because curation savvy users will also upvote these posts. The longer an account is active the more auto upvotes you collect, the content has nothing to do with it. When im looking at how to increase curation rewards for my voting bot, i only look at spreadsheets and never actually visited a post to check content quality. I upvote users that post daily and get lots of other upvotes, the content has nothing to do with it. I think whales might do the same to get the most bang for their buck. It's a flawed model. I take advantage and im just as bad but ethics will only get you so far when your surrounded by mostly unethical people.

As for the future of the whole STEEM/HIVE ecosystem, only time will time. Based on past hard forked tokens, HIVE is doomed to drop below the price of STEEM. The ratio between the 2 tokens has been shortening every day the past week with a current ratio of around 1 HIVE to 1.13 STEEM and last week being 1 Hive to 2.29 STEEM. Maybe HIVE has run out of STEAM already. My biggest fear with HIVE is that's it basically newsteem. This hard fork was planned by a handful of whale witness's for likely weeks before the announcement was made. Don't get me wrong, im happy to have an option to get away from Justin Sun but i fear that HIVE is just the same thing.

Anyone remember the great "bidding bot" wars of 2019 were whale accounts basically killed all bidding and instant upvoting services. The biggest use cause for liquid STEEM at the time was upvoting bots and they killed the whole thing by targeting users instead of the operators with auto downvoting bots. They promoted thier own curation trails and blackballed everyone else.Anyone remember this? It was completely savage, to say the least. If i am not mistaken, these are the same whales that are top voted witnesses of the platform that now all have more witness votes than ever because of the witness battle that took place on STEEM last month. All them new witness votes from users that were not using them before are just gonna stay there in place making it much harder for new witnesses to enter to top 50, 20 are 10. Gripped by the balls comes to mind. How long before another old STEEM vs new STEEM battle takes place on HIVE?

For the average end-user, they are not interested in the drama and thats why HIVE will not succeed like STEEM. When i go to youtube, i could not care less how the company is being run, i wonna watch videos about whatever subject that falls into my head. Think about if half of YouTubers video's content was about youtube and how it's bring ran. You would have never heard of youtube if this was the case. When i go to hive.blog i go to read blog posts. Im lying because i never go to hive.blog to read blogs cause they are all based on content about HIVE. The content for youtube is everything you can think of, the content for Reddit is everything you can think of plus more and the content for hive.blog is HIVE blockchain-related which is a very small niche when compared with everything and anything.

What im trying to say is STEEM/HIVE will always remain small and probably die off in a few years as devs and users move onto better things and projects. STEEM/HIVE are amazing blockchains but there is a reason the marketcap is so low. STEEM used to be a top 10 crypto but it'll soon drop out of the top 100 and HIVE might follow are even drop out of the top 100 before STEEM.

For now, the whole blogging, running my voting bot and being part of the SPinvest club is a hobby that i use to kill time. Will i be here in 5 years, probably not but I'll still be in crypto land, that's 100%.

Maybe im overthinking things. So it is almost 2 pm for me, time for afternoon coffee. Since being on lockdown, i have learned to enjoy the finer things in life.

Have a great day everyone, thanks for reading after my thoughts. Stay safe, take care of the family and stack on tea foook!!!!!