Working on defaults

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Most people came into Steem in some way, shape or form for the financial rewards, whether it be in the short-term looking at 7-day payouts, or in the long-term thinking about Steem Power, curation, owned communities, SMTs, Resource Credit delegation and various other types of revenue streams. Regardless of one's motivations however, at current prices the short-term view is unlikely to be overly compelling unless in dire need of funds in a country where very little goes further.

One of the metrics I have been tracking to keep an eye on those who are looking a little bit longer at least is the vested Steem and how it has changed since the hardfork as I think it is indicative of whether people believe it is "worth selling" or not.

Currently, Steem is not worth selling it seems and since the hardfork about a month ago, the staked Steem has increased by almost 2.5 percent, which is a good result since we have also gone through about 4 potential powerdown cycles since then.

There are likely a couple reasons for this and one of the major ones is probably that instead of vote sellers getting liquids, curators are getting staked Steem instead and this puts in the step of requiring to powerdown in order to liquefy it. This means that the default option is to leave it staked, where previously it was to leave it liquid. These small changes in direction of action can make large differences.

One area of default I remember reading about (I think in Thinking Fast and Slow) was where the difference in organ donation between Denmark and the Netherlands was almost polar opposite with about 90 percent donation in one, and 10% donation in the other. The reason was when getting a licence the one with the high donation rate had a check box to "opt-out" and in the other country it was to "opt-in". When it comes to difficult questions or things that people don't want to think about, the default is well, the default. This is how so many people got the "ask" toolbar on their browser.

Having the default option on Steem to be "powered up" means that there is an additional step to powerdown and while not difficult, it requires a thought process that likely considers other variables. The other day when I powered up my liquids, I had to go through the same thought process in order to weigh the pros and cons of doing so, things like, What if Steem spikes, what if it dies, what if I need it fast, what if, what if, what if...

For me, it was an easy decision as even though I had been collected it for a good long while, I am not planning on selling it anytime soon and that means that it is better off working for me and the platform in the meantime. Also, while it was a significant amount, I can get similar within a week with a poweredown cycle since I don't have it delegated away. If I really, really need some additional funds (I have never sold crypto), I can find a way. Although, I have set up my life so that there really is no point in selling Steem or crypto, especially at the current prices we are seeing.

What I figure is that many more are now doing the same and instead of keeping it liquid, are taking the default and keeping it powered up. On top of this, there are people buying a bit of Steem off the exchanges as well as the people who are more likely to be getting the majority of Steem at the moment are those who either have stake or have proven themselves enough that they are attracting additional support, and then often means that they have supported the community through their content or behavior anyway and are therefore more likely to keep it powered up too.

What this is doing is driving Steem stake into the hands of those who are looking long-term as investors in the platform and applications for potential future revenue streams over those who are looking for the 7-day payout. While some might not like this, as it continues it will stabilize the chain so that the earning potentials of SMTs can better be realized.

Also, now that the bidbots are going predominantly manual, the "top" author earnings have been trimmed significantly with many who were only getting purchased votes going to near zero. This has meant a much wider flow of Steem going to more long-term positioned accounts. And because they are also often curating, they are pushing their votes out to those in their own network for a much better distribution.

As has always been said, the best time to earn Steem is when prices are low and with the current version of the blockchain, this has become even more apparent for those who have staked up or proven themselves useful in various ways, as well as for those who have been able to attract some of the stake that has returned to curation due to the 50/50 rule change. Those who are able to continue staking are likely to be in a very good position later, while those who are constantly forced to sell will forever struggle to reach significant earning streams and will be tied to the 7-day payouts.

Since Steem is the stabilizing coin of the blockchain, I see that it is going to increasingly become investor-centric and the door will close on those wanting to stake unless they are willing to buy. SMTs however will arrive to become the earning coins that ride the stabilization Steem Power provides.

Again, while many people might not like the processes and this position, the fact of investment means that one has to have the ability to invest more than one extracts consistently. In order to do so, that means setting up a life where one doesn't require the 7-day payout to live and can instead keep it staked. This isn't possible for everyone to do for a host of reasons, but that is not the fault of the blockchain.

As I see it, Steem is an opportunity like no other out there at the moment and even those who might not be able to invest anything economically, can still get in, but this still requires staying in. With the decrease in price, the increase in stake seems to indicate that right now, there is more benefit in having Steem in, than out. For me who looks very long, that is going to be the case for a good while yet and by the time I might consider selling anything significant, the revenue streams are likely to mean that I will have to reevaluate my position.

Setting a future sale price now is only useful when viewing the blockchain as it is now and when that price comes, there might be so much more benefit in staying in. The exciting thing of this investment is, no one really knows where it is going to end up because anyone from anywhere can take it in any direction. It only requires one viral application, and everything changes.

My default is Steem optimism - and I am yet to be convinced otherwise.

Taraz
[ a Steem original ]


Onboarding



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13 comments
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My hopes as well. A risk worth risking.

On the other hand, I see very little of the whole. I can presume things based on what I see from my belfry but that is limited. Like "isn't it natural for the price to drop in times when yesterday's winners began to lose more under the new conditions. Many disappointed people want out?" I wouldn't bet on such thoughts of mine.

I bet on the potential which has not decreased but has increased. I do feel better appreciated now, despite the change to 50/50. The more people care about curation, the more people who need curation are likely to appear.

That's another hope for the best.

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I bet on the potential which has not decreased but has increased. I do feel better appreciated now, despite the change to 50/50. The more people care about curation, the more people who need curation are likely to appear.

I m hoping that once the SMTs come, there will be more appreciation again felt and then, more looking for it. Attention economies demand it.

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PALNEt neoxag and Steem leo can still work, but Steems distribution is already messed up... steemit ind will keep selling steem to pay for $600K a month amazon server costs... they dont care if steem is 1 penny theyll just dump more lol, they need to cut steemit.com down sunset it and redirect all traffic to steempeak, run steemit.com like steem.io /.com a foundation style site showing stateofthedapps style list of top dapps ... then @steemit @steem @elipowell can save $500K a month and stop sellings teem and their bags can go up they can amke SO much more money theyll all be millionaires at steemit inc again ... steem back to $8 even beyond... they just have to stop selling, complete my plan of adding steem to scatter and launch teh steemit mobile app to replace teh website and steemit desktop app...

vessel wallet will have a browser....

@esteem.app @esteem @good-karma is already very close to this actually witha steem desktop browse but it is not a dapp browseryet , it needs steem engine tokens and dapps for steem, and steem engine tokens proves theyll be ready for SMts, no one can skip steem engine its the meat and you dont ge your SMt deserttill u eat your steem engine meat :D

this made me stake $5 worth fo steem leo seeing the leo uipvotes

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steemit ind will keep selling steem to pay for $600K a month amazon server costs

I don't mind this, they will run out eventually.

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I've never powered down. Haven't powered up for a while as I think my magic number might be a bit high, going to adjust it down XD

The steem is all right :)

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The magic number is 100! :D

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Dialled down to 50 for steem because it's taking way too long to get to 100 XD

It's working fine for my steem engine tokens though :) (or at least the handful that I want more of XD)

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50 might suffice. :D

I have collected some SE as well, who knows if they will do well over time, but there is no point waiting until they do to decide whether to collect.

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I definitely think Steem's potential is huge. The amount of value this platform holds far outweighs the value that is actually being produced (hope that makes since).

Basically, companies like McDonalds that have already capped out what they can do and how much they can expand is the opposite of Steem right now as it's just starting out and the ability for value creation is huge for potential investors.

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Yes it makes sense. It is a sleeping giant at the moment I think and once it starts to awake, it will move fast. It never has to be McDonald's to be successful, it can be a whole lot of those corner grills that the locals frequent.

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