The "Crypto Window" Formula I'm Discovering for myself.
It's been a crazy few weeks for crypto and alts, bit I honestly called it. I was speaking to someone recently about 3 months ago, and told them my predictions for the market, they didn't was possible, but looking back from 3 months ago.
I realized I have been right, and there was honestly something I did right, and that was actually removing sentiments from my outlook of the market and replacing them with realistic expectations based on what the market potentially holds, but does this really mean I don't have hope? Oh yes I do.
When I'm not being realistic about the market, the next thing I do is have "hope". There's just one simply way to call the market, or get predictions right, and that's being realistic and looking at things they way they are or should be.
However, no matter how realistic you are, you'll still not be able to properly predict the top or bottom. A lot of crypto analyst, over 90% said the BTC's top would be 250k or something, and they were all wrong. It's easy to predict a timeframe when BTC will likely top, but you cannot exactly say at what price it would, but the price has consistently remained the same.
This is how people are able to project: they just project last cycle's timeframe to the new cycle, and most of the time, the changes are always minor. For example late 2024 to late 2025 was the peak to sell any crypto you had.
It has always happened repeatedly. So, if you projecting this into the next cycle, you'll have late 2028 and late 2029 as the timeframe to sell and actually make profit while leaving 2026 and 2027 as active buying years.
The one year timeframe between 2028 and 2029 is a broad timeframe because the only difference here is that the period you choose to sell within this timeframe may determine how much profit you'll make, and this isn't me saying it's a certain thing, it's just me saying "this is how the market is" and even though we get changes to the market, then that one year window you have to take profit will never really change irrespective of the market dynamics.
The Crashout should flood in, it's normal.
This exactly makes 2026 and maybe till mid or late 2027 as buying years, and anything from after the halving in 2028 as profit periods.
I think the more knowledge you have about the market the less emotional you'll become and this is the truth that a lot of us might either realize too late or never realize at all, and that's the sad thing about it. It's horrible to be an alt holder at this point.
I woke up to a few "crashout" posts from Hive faithfuls, and honestly I won't say it wasn't expected, the more lower price gets, the more people get agitated, it's also the same, for a lot of other alts too. but I guess it's what it is. Everyone will get their window to buy and sell at some point, it's just left for one to utilize it properly.
This is the premise on which whales manipulate markets. They create enough repetition to give you the illusion of seeing a “pattern” or understanding the market to an extent that you believe you can predict it. Once enough people buy in on the safety and recurrence of the perceived pattern, they sweep you all out and leave behind chart patterns that make you go “oh how didn’t I see this” or you just fall back on the “you can’t predict the market with 100% certainty anyways”.
I’m a little selfish right now cos I honestly want Hive to go lower and stay there for a month or two so that I can accumulate some HP fast and cheap before it starts trending up.
What happened in the last cycle can hardly be called a cycle. It's not a complete cycle until alts moon. Except that would never happen again 🥲
Lol it would appear so. Maybe this is what a cycle will look like from now on. BTC Tops, then drags alts down to hell, and we wake up one morning to find that alts pumped and stay there.
Alts pumping and staying there sounds like a very unlikely scenario these days. Hmm, no one just knows what is happening, it would take some more years before anyone can know what cycles are going to look like from now on, it's probably the end of cycles too and things would be more random.
Yeah, that's the entire point. There's no "normal" thing anymore because the market has deviated from how it has behaved for over a decade. Any and everything should be expected.
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STOPIt's always been better to remove your own sentiments. The market is its own beast, and emotions just get in the way. In any case, most markets tend to have their own trends, and crypto is the same way. We won't always go up, but that is life.