RE: OK, this is Getting a Little Surreal!

There are little cabins or foreclosed properties that cost between 9k and 50k.

I'd prefer not to pay rent if I have a choice.

The trick of it, and the resilience of the economic system seems to be the 13 week powerdown period, which means any exit needs to be spread out over 3 months of a sustained rally, hopefully catching some kind of peak in that rally.

Coingecko shows the history of STEEM indicating 2 sets of peaks.

• July '16 to August '16, before dropping back down to pre-moon levels. Most charts aspire to have this sort of launch hype moon.

Staked people are going to miss this one, or catch part of the tail, before consolidation at previous levels. Solution here would be to power down immediately, and then sell off with a certain level of rule -- ex: Over .30 cents -- if you believe it will drop down to .12 - .23.

Wouldn't be able to sell off completely, I'd guess. Would be able to increase holdings, likely faster than you could do just by keeping powered up.

That being said, I've only been powered up for a short time, so I'm not even certain the month to month implications of that in terms of earnings for orca - marlin levels.

• June '17 to August '18 there was a sustained above $1, and an ATH, which correlated with the peak of the crypto markets in Jan '18. The mythic $8 high of STEEM, and a few smaller peaks like $2-$4.

The way to go here would be to try and get a run of 3 months that were all sustained above $1, and also included a smaller peak, and the best tools for finding those peaks would be correlations with peaks in ETH and BTC.

.:.

BTC

The Halvening comes up next month. Rainbow Log Chart shows the historical prices of BTC in relation to the Halving events.

Prices are low, and there is a speculation of a dump at the halving, followed by an extended bull run period. Using that chart for pacing, including the 3 month power down window, there prices for BTC would need to be around "HODL".

No way to know when the next peak is. I've been watching a lot of people talk about it, and looking at a lot of conversations on Reddit.

People imagine it will be 6 months after the halving [June '20 to November '20], and one of the confident btc talking heads mentions Dec '21, which looks like the Log Chart.

.:.

ETH

ETH 2.0 Beacon chain is being launched in July '20, and there will be a very expansive hype period.

The first rumor of ETH 2.0 that I'm aware of jumpstarted on 1/1, which lead to a 120 to 280 bull run, shortly before the collapse in March. +2x. The rumor was not substantiated, and if you look at ETH charts, you see some kind of level happening there around 280 - 340.

Sort of like above 340 ETH are the peaks that correlate with the $2 peaks for STEEM during that time.

Once people can Stake ETH for POS people with money will move in and defi will expand.

.:.

July '20 to Oct '20 -> Dec '21 is the shared window between BTC Hype and ETH Hype.

Beyond that, there is also a time context, based on when you bought in, due to Long Term Captial Gains being a tax exemption, and that requiring funds be held for 1 year or longer.

Up to ~52k can come out per year at 0% taxes, if you own a house source on tax rates.

.:.

Fundamentally, we also have the highly correlated drop of Stonks with the cryptomarkets, back in March -- and the speculation of unprecedented debt via infinite quantitative easing, the collapse of Oil, as well as a re-ordering of powers in the global economy, and an economy that is demonstrating record high levels of unemployment.

Couple those fundamental economic issues with basically incompetent leadership.

.:.

If I had to write a story about it:

I'd get Donald Trump to be shat on by the US elections in November, giving him between November and February '21 to basically dump the shit out of economy and stock market long enough to get out for himself and his cronies. -- Dump on the Dems coming in as soon as he's aware that he's no longer responsible.

Mnuchin and the whole Infinite Quantitative Easing and that congresswoman who sold off before Coronavirus.

USD probably in for a Shit winter in '20. Recovery might begin afterward. Probably a loss of global economic stature.

.:.

Personal Speculations and Conditions for myself:

I can pull out up to $52k by April '21, and buy a cabin to live in, and pay 0% in taxes on those gains in 2021.

In order to do that, I need a 3 month period of sustained elevated prices, including a small peak. Historically - sustained elevated prices are $1-($2 through $8).

So, I'd say the first opportunity for that exists around July '20 - October '20. Power Down July '20 - August '20.

I'd guess a systemic collapse triggered when Trump loses personal accountability for the election, but long enough to where he can blame the Democrats -- so I'm Bearish:

• May '20
• Dec'20 - Feb '21.

Could be a re-entry point for long term stake?

Long term stake which would be holdings that are over 52k in gains value would be a highly useful thing to have as a component of a long term personal economic tool in a depression 2020-2023?
[Basically using HIVE by Staking and Posting and Curating, and not as a speculative asset.]

Which means there would be a period for re-accumulation with potential for an ATH whenever the next BTC one pops off. I would use the Rainbow Log for timing.

I would suppose that the next exit would be May '22 for another $52k assuming there was an ATH by Dec '21, which would be a power down around Oct '21.

I would suppose the question at that point would be something like "What can you buy with up to $52k each year with USD that you couldn't buy with BTC/ETH/HIVE, that would be worth more than holding / staking?

.:.

I'm open to additional input.

Thanks for helping prompt a response here, It was cool to lay it out and organize my thoughts a bit.