Some tokens might not moon, so take the middle ground.

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This is Cryptothesis, and it is time I review my crypto thesis again!

We are currently approximately 395 days away from the next Bitcoin halving, according to https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/halving/.

Screenshot 20230315 at 9.24.59 PM.png

That is the catalyst to the bull market most crypto enthusiasts are waiting for.

But the question is, do we have a plan when that time comes?

The big plan is to take profit, as many have said. What can be sure is that the newcomers experiencing the first bull market would likely not know what to do and will miss out on taking profits.

My prediction, however, is that we probably won't have as many of these noobs as the previous bull market who leave too much on the table to lose it all. All these years of crypto education and experience would have left behind traces such as this post to remind more people to take profits earlier. The collective effect could be that the bull market is shortlived, and prices come down again for people to accumulate.

I imagine this to be a sign of maturing market.

Looking at my own portfolio, I must be prepared that some tokens might not moon in the next bull market. Either because the project sucks, or the players in the crypto market are becoming more conservative.

Screenshot 20230315 at 9.39.29 PM.png

Take the BTC price movement as an example, if the conservative play by the crypto enthusiasts pans out, it will take longer for BTC to break all-time high.

Now, the bet for me is based on consideration of the probability of the price breaking all-time high and staying up there, versus oscillating between all-time high and lower prices.

Somehow the probability of the latter is higher, judging from previous data points.

It is for this reason why I tend to take the middle groud, i.e. fill up my bags in case it moons, but trade the range bounds to increase my yield.

This is the middle ground I am adopting.

P/S: This is not financial advice, and please do your own due diligence before investing.

If you read this far... and if you are a like-minded Hiver who is on the path to learning more about Hive and crypto investing, and if you like to be tagged when I write such posts, I welcome you to leave a comment below and let me know. We can form an alliance to support each other's growth.

You might be interested in this post, @thatkidsblack, @graciousvic, @deflacion, @jacoalberts, @young-kedar, @svanbo, @sumotori, @zakludick, @poplar-22 and @hankanon!

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24 comments
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It's not always about moon the best strategy is to take profits and reenter again when market goes down

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Yeah. I realize it… hopefully not too late. !PIZZA

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(Edited)

PIZZA! PIZZA! PIZZA! PIZZA! PIZZA! PIZZA! PIZZA!

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Btc to the moon. It is almost certain that it will go up. The question is. How much?

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The missing of the top in taking profits would definitely hurt. Unfortunately, hard to tell when the top is. So I guess the good old DCA in profit-taking could be a plan. !PIZZA

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I totally agree with you. In my view, there are many people who are my friends who put a lot of money inside the bill market but now their money is absolutely zero. They just have the chance to wait for the incoming bill market.

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If you are not taking your profit on the right time, you are going to regret it, That's what happened to me. I have lost around 50k in the bear season. But now I am prepared to take profit when i get the chance, will not repeat the same mistake.

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It is only in Hive that we can band together to remind each other to take profit. Gotta have a plan for it! !PIZZA

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Yes planning is very very much important. now I'm planning what I should do with the tokens I have left in my portfolio.

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Yes I am agree, it not as easy as it looks. No one in the world is able to predict crypto currency exactly because if it is possible then there no chance of lose. It is all about to right time of buying and right time of exit. If you missed the chance of exit then you must have holding power otherwise there is only one way and that is lose.

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You just stated the only truth in crypto! Bravo! !PIZZA

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Just build during the recession. I do think that BTC and most of the solid crypto projects will rebound. It's just a market cycle and the prices will go back up because the projects are solid.

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Thanks for sharing the link about the Bitcoinhalving. I knew there was less supply with the time but not how exactly it works! !PIZZA
I do have another concern. Logically they say: there will be a lower supply and a higher demand, so that will increase the price with the time - especially towards 2030 when 98% of the Bitcoins will have been mined. BUT couldn't it be that till that time people will look for alternatives and the demand for Bitcoin would DEcrease? Just playing advocate of the devil here....

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The question is whether they think another halving 4 years later would make the price even higher. If they do, there is no question about alternative.

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Now my comment about what you write in your blog: I do believe that there will be enough noobs to push the BTC high enough, but i agree with you that in general I believe people will be way more conservative after what happened the previous time with all kinds of crypto coins / projects + game coins and NFT's. !LUV

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